On Thursday, October 3, active region AR842 generated two flares classes X (X7.1 and X9.1) and many M-class flares. The flares were the source of coronal mass ejections ejected in a direction near Earth.
Aurora borealis in Poland
“This is a situation that is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in May before the great aurora of 2024. I would not dare to put these events on an equal footing, because this time we have fewer ejected CMEs, but the potential is really big,” wrote Karol Wójcicki, author of the blog. “With your head in the stars.” He assessed that the ongoing activity “will certainly not go unnoticed on our planet.”
Forecasts indicate that the first CME will hit during the day on Friday, which is expected to result in a G1-G3 class magnetic storm. Then it will reach Earth over the next hours wind solar from weaker M-class flares, which should maintain auroral activity.
“Late on Saturday or even on the night from Saturday to Sunday (although I'm counting on a delay here), a coronal mass ejection from the most powerful flare of the current cycle – X9.1 – will arrive. Its arrival should increase the aurora conditions to an even higher level, which will be the dream finale of the entire weekend. We are expecting storm magnetic G3, although I wouldn't be surprised if something stronger came out of it,” emphasized Wójcicki.
Aurora borealis in Poland. What will the weather be like?
Weather conditions for observing the aurora borealis in Poland will be difficult. On Friday, October 4, it will be very cloudy and completely cloudy, and there will be some clearing only in northern Poland. There will also be heavy cloud cover on Saturday, October 5. Showers will only be possible in the north-west of the country. Similar conditions will prevail on Sunday, October 6.