A great wave of renovations. The cost will be huge

Fala Renovation Association in the report entitled “Polish renovation wave. Benefits for Poland until 2035.” indicated that, according to the estimates contained in the project of the National Building Renovation Plan (KPRB), the costs of implementing the EPBD directive in 2025–35, resulting from the need to renovate residential and public buildings, will amount to approx. PLN 550 billion. The cost of modernizing lighting installations in residential and non -residential buildings would be another PLN 10 billion.

According to experts, however, this expenditure should be treated as an investment in raw material independence and energy security, which will have a positive impact on the national economy.

In the report, the association indicated that comprehensive energy modernization of residential buildings would translate into saving PLN 32 billion per year in household expenses for heating. In addition, households could also feel savings related to improving the energy efficiency of lighting, which could amount to over PLN 2 billion a year.

It was indicated that the average cost of heating an apartment or house per household is about 4.4 thousand. PLN for a year on a national scale. In the case of the implementation of the EPBD Directive, the average cost of heating in the Polish household in 2035 would fall to 4.1 thousand. PLN per year.

The report pointed out that the implementation of the EPBD directive in 2035 will reduce the annual carbon import by 7.7 million tons and gas by 4.6 billion cubic meters. “At the record prices of the raw materials we observed in 2022–23, the cost of purchasing such a volume of fossil fuels would be associated with the spending of up to PLN 40 billion” – experts calculated. They indicated that so much money would be enough to cover the total investment costs of deep renovation of 200,000. single -family houses.

Investments related to the renovation of buildings – according to the association's experts – will increase the national GDP by PLN 18.2 billion in 10 years, which is equivalent to about 0.5 percent. Polish GDP In 2023, in their opinion, sectors of the Polish economy related to the clean technologies market may gain the most.

According to the association, between 2025 and 2035, the increase in the heating power of the installation covering heat pumps in residential and public buildings (new and subjected to comprehensive energy modernization) could be almost 20 GW, and the average annual increase would be 2 GW.

Between 2025 and 2035, 2.9 million installations with heat pumps in single -family houses (290,000 average annually) could be built, 50,000 installations in multi -family buildings (5,000 average annually), 100,000 installation in public buildings (10,000 average annually). For about 30 percent New heating installations integrating heat pumps would be responsible for new zero -emission construction, for the rest – replacement of the old heat source in buildings undergoing deep renovation.

According to the data provided in the report, in the perspective of 2035 comprehensive energy modernization of buildings that would include investments in building Renewable They would give potential for the development of 2.5-5 GW new PV (solar) installations and solar collectors. In turn, the requirement of investing in solar installations in new buildings may translate into an additional 4-6 GW PV installations and solar collectors during this period.

The association's experts pointed out that a large increase in production, primarily building and insulation materials, will be needed to carry out deep renovations.

The demand for materials for thermomodernization of residential and public buildings between 2025 and 2035 for the KPRB operating scenario can be up to 60 million energy -saving windows (on average 6 million per year). You will also need 3 million external doors with very good parameters (on average 300,000 a year). The renovation of buildings is also to consume 600 million sq m. insulation materials (on average 60 million per year) and materials necessary for the correct installation of thermal insulation boards, including 6 million tons of adhesive mortars, 600 million sq m. Meshes for reinforcement of space, 3 billion pieces of mechanical connectors, 360 million MB finishing letters, 180 thousand tons of primer, 1.4 million tons of plaster.

According to experts, the currently annual window production is about 15 million pieces. Polish door production is at the level of 8 million (with these data include internal doors and special doors). They added that in the case of materials for insulation of external walls of buildings, the volume of sales in Poland can be estimated at 40-60 million sq m. per year, of which 55 percent this market for new construction, and 45 percent to renovate buildings.

“Increased demand from the renovation industry could significantly stimulate the production sector of building materials. In the case of doors and windows, the average increase in demand would be about 40 percent of the value of Polish production, and the demand for insulation materials could increase twice” – experts assessed.

The report noticed that now with “unsatisfactory renovation”, there is a huge market demand for good contractors. Experts calculated that in connection with the implementation of requirements arising from EPBD by 2035, the demand for work may increase by approx. 94.3 thousand. additional workplaces. “It is estimated that the number of employees necessary to implement the renovation strategy by 2050 is about 327,000 people” – said in the report.

The Renovation Wave Association is an interstect group dealing with issues related to the energy efficiency of buildings.

According to the amendment to the directive on the energy characteristics of buildings 2024/1275 (EPBD building directive – Energy Performance of Buildings Directive), Member States have time to implement it until May 29, 2026.

From 2030, all new buildings are to be zero -emission; In the case of public institution buildings, this should take place from 2028.

By 2030, in the case of residential buildings, the average primary energy consumption should be reduced by at least 16 %, and by 2035 by at least 20-22 percent. relative to the average consumption in 2020 and 2021.