Ukraine On August 6, it launched an offensive in the Kursk region and took control of the areas on the Russian side border. Among others, Sudja, home to a gas measuring station, the only one still transporting Russian gas through Ukraine to the EU, was seized. Gas deliveries have not been interrupted, but fears that they will have led to an increase price raw material, insignificant – as we read in the analysis of the Centre for Eastern Studies – but enough to reach their highest level since December 2023. Since August 6, gas prices have increased by about 15 percent.
Ukraine has occupied Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. What about gas?
“Possible suspension of transmission [gazu – red.] may occur as a result of damage being a side effect of military operations, as well as a conscious decision by Gazprom. This step would be motivated by the loss of control over the Sudzha station, which is a premise for declaring force majeure (force majeure – ed.). Blocking this route – although of little significance for the EU's overall imports – would hit EU recipients of Russian gas from this direction,” OSW predicts.
The think tank team emphasizes that the narrative pushed by the Russians that Ukraine attacked Sudja in order to put pressure on Hungary and Slovakia (recipients of Russian gas), which are skeptical of aid for Kiev, is unfounded. “This is evidenced by both the fact that gas transmission continued after the attack and Kiev's declarations that it does not rule out extending the transit contract with Sudja, which expires at the end of this year. Gazprom“.
What significance will a Ukrainian attack on the Kursk Oblast have?
“The Ukrainian military action in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation that began on August 6 came as a surprise to the Kremlin and a shock to society,” OSW writes. “The actions of the Ukrainians pose a serious political and image challenge to the Kremlin, the biggest since Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion in June 2023. They expose significant deficits in the effectiveness of the Russian authorities at the central and regional levels. However, they are primarily a blow to the image of the war being built by Vladimir Putin's regime as effective and close to victory and being fought exclusively on Ukrainian territory. The Ukrainian action is moving the war – on a scale unprecedented in this conflict – to Russian territory, which increases its Cost “social and political” – claims the Centre for Eastern Studies.
At the same time, however, the think tank claims that there is no basis to believe that the events in Kursk Oblast will change anything in Moscow's approach. “The failure of the Russian special services and Armed Forces to allow the occupation of the border regions of Kursk Oblast may lead to individual resignations in the law enforcement agencies and local authorities, but they are unlikely to happen quickly, so as not to admit defeat. The operation will, however, provide a pretext for further tightening of the information blockade in Russia and increased repression against those suspected of disloyalty. It will worsen public sentiment and increase the critical attitude of part of society towards the authorities, but it will not threaten the stability of the regime in the short term,” OSW analyzes.
However, it is possible that retaliatory actions against Ukrainian civilians and repressions against Ukrainian prisoners of war will intensify (according to the UN, 95% of them are already being tortured). Maintaining Kursk Oblast will give Ukraine a better position in future peace talks. “However, this is unlikely to limit Moscow's territorial and political demands towards Ukraine and the West,” concludes the think tank Centre for Eastern Studies.