NFL Week 1 is formally within the books, which implies overreaction week has commenced!
As normal, the Week 1 slate resulted in large surprises and devastating disappointments, inflicting some bettors to fireplace away on new futures bets and/or pivot from wagers beforehand made.
One such market that noticed quite a lot of motion earlier than the season began was the NFL MVP award. Going into the season, celebrity quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers have been the favorites to win the award at FOX Bet, at +550 and +1000, respectively. They have been adopted by Josh Allen (+1100), Tom Brady (+1400) and Dak Prescott (+1500) to spherical out the higher tier of candidates.
However as everyone knows, Week 1 has a approach of adjusting issues. That’s exactly why the MVP odds are on the transfer, with Brady main the way in which.
The 44-year-old legend picked up proper the place he left off final season, tossing 4 landing passes within the Thursday opener in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys. As ridiculous as this sounds, TB12 is enjoying among the finest soccer of his profession. After Brady’s efficiency, his MVP odds shortened from +1400 to +900 at FOX Bet, making him the most important mover going into Week 2.
“Brady is our largest legal responsibility to win the award,” FOX Guess content material integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor mentioned. “He was doubtless helped by the very fact he performed earlier within the week, too, so he was focus.”
Per Blangsted-Barnor, Jameis Winston was the opposite largest riser after Week 1, together with his odds shifting all the way in which down from +4000 to +2500 at FOX Bet. Understandably so, as Winston carved up the Green Bay Packers protection like turkey dinner for 5 touchdowns.
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Talking of the Packers, Rodgers’ odds took an enormous tumble. The Inexperienced Bay signal-caller threw for an abysmal 133 yards with two interceptions in a 38-3 defeat to the New Orleans Saints. His odds to win MVP have fallen from +1000 to +1600 at a number of sportsbooks, together with PointsBet, as indicated by their Sports activities Analyst Michael Korn.
Two different QBs with dominant openers, Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford, additionally noticed their odds shrink. Murray moved all the way in which down from +2500 to +900 at BetMGM, per information analyst John Ewing.
“Stafford moved as much as No. 1 by way of legal responsibility for us at PointsBet,” mentioned Korn at PointsBet.
FOX Sports activities’ very personal betting professional Jason McIntyre is aware of that is overreaction week, which is why he’s doubling down on a quarterback who did not have a stellar first recreation.
“I hyped Baker Mayfield for MVP all summer time, and there is much more worth on him after Week 1,” McIntyre mentioned. “Of Mayfield’s subsequent 10 opponents, 9 missed the playoffs final yr.
“He was glorious for 3 quarters vs. the most effective staff within the NFL. He’ll have success all season, and the Browns will likely be ready to win the division and maybe get the No. 2 seed.”
In fact, there’s quite a lot of the season left, with 16 video games nonetheless to go, however typically, the primary week of the NFL offers us a good suggestion of which gamers are going to place themselves ready to win the award. The race will keep fluid, and narratives additionally dictate who wins, so it’s a enjoyable wager to keep watch over because the season progresses.
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