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Friday, February 7, 2025

Alyaksandr Lukashenko is running for another term. “This is a farce”

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Maciej Słomiński, Interia: Why are there elections in Belarus at all if their results are known in advance? Yet Alyaksandr Lukashenko he could declare himself ruler for life, emperor, tsar, whatever.

Kamil Kłysiński, chief specialist in the Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova team at OSW: – For all civilized countries this is a farce, after all, no one believes that this nativity scene has anything to do with the elections. For the dictator, it is a form of image and symbolic ritual. Elections are not meant to show the will of the people, but to make it look like it.

– The point is to show that Lukashenko controls the state, society and nation. In this respect it is a successful project. As for the demonstration of strength and that Lukashenko and his people are able to push through Belarus all they want is effective action. The regime shows that it controls the country.

Does the dictator have any rivals for the presidency at all?

– I will not mention them by name, because it would waste the readers' time and health. There are four sparring partners, including one woman. These “candidates” de facto supported Lukashenko during their absolutely absurd “election campaign” and are racing for second place, as one of them said.

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– It doesn't matter who gets 5 percent and who gets 3.5 percent, because we know that Lukashenka will have well over 80 percent. The campaign and the so-called rival candidates are a completely empty election ritual, which is more a demonstration of power than election.

After the previous presidential elections in 2020, mass protests broke out in Belarus in protest against their rigging. The authorities then brutally suppressed them and many people left the country. Did anyone else stay in Lukashenko's country to protest?

– Even if someone hasn't left yet, no one will object, because people simply want to live. If the repressions are totalitarian in nature, let's not expect people to go into gun barrels with their bare hands.

So there will be no repeat of 2020?

– Today the situation and context is completely different. Four years ago, Belarus was a completely different country. Since then, the dictatorship has undergone a tragic evolution from authoritarianism to totalitarianism. Four years ago, social organizations were still active in our eastern neighbors, and free media and political parties also operated to a limited extent. These organizations no longer exist. The power sector dominates, surveillance of society in every possible way, and there is overwhelming terror.

– People know that it's not worth sticking out, because it won't lead to anything good. Belarus today is much more stable in a negative sense, society is fully controlled. There is an ominous, almost graveyard-like silence there. All activities, even independent ones, not to mention opposition ones, are unwelcome and people know it.

A few or a dozen or so days ago, information appeared about the removal of migrants from the Belarusian-Polish border. Are these fake movements, disinformation or is there really something to it?

– We have had a migration crisis since 2021 and this migration pressure continues. Currently it is smaller because it is winter, perhaps not too severe, but still discouraging migrants. This happens in certain cycles, last year it was similar, there were fewer migrants in winter. Currently, for three consecutive days there have been no attempts to illegally cross the border. I do not rule out that this may be an action related to the elections, but it is all temporary, situational.

– A hybrid war is still being waged by the Russian-Belarusian side Polandand more broadly against NATO i European Union. The migration crisis will continue. He will appear again after the elections. The goals don't change. Harass, misinform, provoke, test endurance and distract from Ukrainy.

In recent years, there has been information about the deterioration of Lukashenko's health; in fact, he looked worse and worse and gained weight. Is there any succession planned? For example, is his son ready to take over?

– This is a difficult topic for the dictator, he is afraid of serious conversation and serious succession mechanisms. Lukashenko talks about it, but he did little about it. The current constitutional mechanism provides for the transfer of power in the event of Lukashenko's death or serious illness to Natalia Kachanova, head of the Council of the Republic, the equivalent of our Senate. He is a non-decisive person, without political will or vision, known for his boundless loyalty.

– This is due to Lukashenko's fear. He is afraid to appoint a strong successor, as he has always exterminated such people. Even if someone had a strong personality, he tried to bend to Lukashenko's conditions and not show his ambitions. He tried to be obedient and loyal, just trying to survive. I also see no indication that Lukashenko wants to create a dynasty. None of his sons are ready to take over.

And what's up with judge Tomasz Szmydt, who fled to Belarus in May 2024, where he was granted political asylum?

– Former judge Tomasz Szmydt he is a friend of the Belarusian regime. I hope that all his friends in Poland have turned away from him. Szmydt is a classic traitor who performs certain services for the regime.

Szmydt is quite active on the X website.

– I know that he runs some blogs, radio shows and podcasts. He is probably paid by the regime's propaganda machine. What salary he gets and from where, I don't know. The moral categories of this type of actions must be clear for us, and this is the most important thing. He doesn't have much reach, he hasn't become an Internet hero. At first glance, it is clear that this is not a media personality. He is a fallen man who got lost a few years ago.

What fate awaits him? How long will he be useful to the regime?

– I don't predict a bright future for him. It has been in operation longer than a former soldier of the Polish Armed Forces, the late Emil Czeczko, whose useful life was much shorter. After a few months in Belarus, he was found hanging in his apartment, as if he had committed suicide. No one is serious about this version.

– Szmydt is more useful because he knows more and held a higher position in Poland. But he won't be useful to them forever and it may turn out that he had an accident or died for other reasons.

What place does Poland occupy in Belarusian propaganda? To borrow Iranian terminology – is he a big or a little Satan?

– Poland is targeted as the largest neighboring country west of Belarus, it is enemy number one. They are just behind Poland United States. Moreover, these two countries appear in tandem – in Belarusian propaganda, we are “servants of the USA”, deprived of our own sovereignty and political vision. In the narrative of the Belarusian regime, we are an “American Trojan horse in Europe”, much more brutal and vulgar words are used, I will not recite them for the sake of personal culture.

– Anti-Polish propaganda is carried out in a very conscious way. Historical stereotypes from our difficult common Polish-Belarusian history are used and this is exploited very consciously in close consultation with Russia. I am convinced of this, as elements of the Russian narrative and Russian style can be clearly seen in these propaganda attacks.

“Polityczny WF”: Krzysztof Stanowski can make a lot of noise/INTERIA.PL



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