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Americans updated their summer forecast. You can see some interesting things in it

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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a summer temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for Europe. The latest calculations show that not all months will bring the high temperatures we fear, and at times it may be even colder than usual. Tomasz Wasilewski, the presenter of tvnmeteo.pl, talks about what else the next few weeks may bring.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released an updated forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies for the summer. It shows that compared to the average from 1991-2020 June almost the entire country will be close to normal in terms of temperature. Tomasz Wasilewski, presenter of tvnmeteo.pl, explained that the previous forecast predicted a positive anomaly – it was supposed to be warmer than usual.

– Perhaps this is related to the fact that a classic western air circulation has now established over Europe, consistent with our climate – he explained. – This flow of air usually means a moderate temperature. Unlike, for example, the southern circulation, which brings African heat to us, the western circulation is characterized by more moderate air masses flowing from the Atlantic, he noted.

Forecast of average monthly temperature anomalies in the period June-September 2024IMWM/NOAA

Holiday weather 2024

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What values ​​should we expect? According to data from 1991-2020, the average air temperature in June in Warsaw was from 17.1 to 18.3 degrees Celsius. IN Krakow these values ​​range from 17.2-18.2 degrees C, while Gdańsk – from 15.2 to 16.3 degrees C.

Wasilewski added that the American forecast was confirmed by predictions IMWM. According to them, next week will be colder in Poland than this particular period in June. The average temperature in the following weeks of this month is expected to have a slight positive or negative deviation, without extremes. In a general summary of the entire month of June, this may mean that it will be average, i.e. within the norm.

Forecasted weekly temperature anomaly in the period 10/06-14/07IMWM-CMM

Weather for summer 2024

What does the forecast look like for the coming months? IN July a slight positive deviation of 0.5-1 degrees Celsius is forecast throughout the country. Typically, in Warsaw the average air temperature is 19.2-20.3 degrees C, in Krakow – 19.2-19.9 degrees C, and in Gdańsk – 17.8-18.8 degrees C. In August in the south-east and in a large area of ​​western Poland, the heat may deepen and the average temperature may reach up to 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal. September is expected to bring a return to normal values ​​throughout the country – an average of 13.3 to 14.8 degrees C in Warsaw, 13 to 14.7 degrees C in Kraków and 14.3 to 15.1 degrees C in Gdańsk.

In terms of precipitation, June promises to be significantly rainier than usual – in most parts of the country, up to 30 liters more per square meter than usual may fall during the month. In July, this trend will continue only in the north-east, and the anomaly will not exceed 10 lm/sq m. From this month, parts of the country will also experience a period of drier than usual weather. Precipitation lower by 5-10 l/sq m. are forecast in various regions of the country until September.

Forecast of average monthly rainfall anomalies in the period June-September 2024IMWM/NOAA

Main photo source: IMWM/NOAA/Shutterstock



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