In May, developers sold a total of 2,447 apartments in the seven largest cities in Poland. This means a decrease by 35 percent compared to April, according to the analysis of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal. The new data has been described as “black May in housing markets”.
Apartment sales were 49 percent worse. also compared to May 2021. “But back then the loans were record cheap. Moreover, because of the high inflation many wealthy Poles invested their financial surpluses in apartments, hoping for an increase in their value and rental income “- the experts noted.
As indicated, this year among experts is a common belief that the demand for housing will fall due to the increase in interest rates on housing loans and the economic effects of war in Ukraine. “May sales data seem to confirm this forecast” – underlined.
Experts recalled that the April sales increase could have been a temporary revival, related to the announcement of the new recommendation of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority. It is a recommendation of the KNF, according to which from April, banks have to calculate creditworthiness, taking into account interest rates 5 percentage points higher. “Its effect is a reduction in the creditworthiness of potential apartment buyers. Therefore, as reported by Biuro Informacji Kredytowej (BIK), the number of people willing to buy housing loans increased sharply in March,” we read in the analysis prepared by RynekPierwotny.pl.
Fall in sales of apartments
It was noted that the sale of flats dropped sharply in all analyzed cities. According to experts, developers in Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław have reasons to worry. “In April they could be happy with more contracts, but in May they did not have much to be happy about. They sold fewer apartments than in April by 24%, 38% and 40%, respectively.” – they pointed.
“There hasn’t been such a weak month in terms of sales in the capital since the COVID-19 lockdown in April 2020.” – they added. Compared to the same period last year, sales, for example, in Warsaw fell by 54 percent, in Wrocław by 49 percent, and in Poznań by 32 percent. and Gdańsk by 40 percent.
“In the capital of Wielkopolska, developers have found buyers for only 154 apartments! Also in this city, the worst month in terms of sales was April 2020.” – we read. For comparison, last year, developers from Poznań sold an average of 426 apartments per month.
In all analyzed cities, 1,852 flats were sold in total, i.e. by 46%. less than in April. The biggest decrease, by as much as 88 percent. it concerned Poznań.
MarketPierwotny.pl experts pointed out that “in all analyzed cities, developers launched for sale fewer apartments than they had sold in May”. In their opinion, “in Warsaw it looks as if the developers have applied the handbrake”.
The increase in housing prices has slowed down
The analysis shows that May brought a stop to the increase in the average price per square meter of housing offered by developers.
“In Katowice, Kraków, Łódź and Poznań, the average remained at the April level, and in Gdańsk it fell by as much as 2%. This is the result of the introduction of a pool of apartments to the market with an average price of about PLN 9,000 per m2, which is significantly below the average in the offer, which in May reached PLN 11.4 thousand per meter “- we read.
1% increase the average price per square meter concerned only Warsaw and Wrocław.
According to experts, “rising construction costs mean that the price bar continues to go up”. As they noted, the changes are best seen when comparing the price structure of flats. Over the last year, all cities have seen a decrease in flats with a price below 8,000. PLN per m2.
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