Poland is aging, Poland is shrinking. There are no solutions that could significantly change this situation in the short term, said Dr. Hab. Iga Magda, Institute of Structural Research, SGH. She also indicated two factors why the number of births and the fertility rate in the Vistula region are decreasing.
– Demographers have been showing for years how the demographic situation will change, and how the fact that fewer and fewer children are born will affect our population structure. Poland is aging, Poland is shrinking and there are really no solutions that could significantly change this situation in the short term, apart from migration, of course, said Dr. Iga Magda.
Decrease in the number of births and the fertility rate
In her opinion, the data clearly indicate that “in Poland in 2023, probably fewer than three hundred thousand children will be born,” and “2017 was the last year when we observed a fairly high number of births, i.e. over four hundred thousand.”
She added that “since 2017, we have recorded a clear decline in both the number of births and the fertility rate.”
– There are two main sources of this decline. On the one hand, women in particular age groups have fewer children. This applies in particular to younger women who postpone motherhood and have children later. But on the other hand, among all women who are of the so-called reproductive age, i.e. 15-49, the percentage of women over 35-40 is increasing, and the percentage of young women who are more likely to have children is decreasing, she said.
She also added: – The fertility rate, i.e. how many children there are per one woman of reproductive age, which we would like to be around 2.1, because it is a coefficient that ensures the renewal of generations and population, is now 1.26 in Poland and is clearly decreasing. for several years.
Fewer and fewer Poles are being born
Ph.D. Iga Magda believes that “demography is an area where, even if we invest a lot in it”, “it is difficult to guess and calculate what exactly works and what solutions have a chance to increase the fertility rate, and which turn out to be ineffective.”
– It is not only Poland that has invested a lot of financial resources in benefits for families without any significant effect on the fertility rate. If you look at the experiences of other European countries, ChinaSouth Korea, it is there despite investing, spending large amounts (of money), a large percentage GDP on family policy, the fertility rate is still decreasing and is at a dramatically low level – she said.
She also added: Secondly, I think that politicians will not necessarily be willing to talk only about this economy, because any solutions will have effects in a dozen or several dozen years, and this is rarely a political perspective.
In her opinion, even in the perspective of 2030, “we are talking about the loss of up to 5 million Poles.”
– This is a lot, and in fact, these demographic data clearly indicate that a thorough, extensive discussion is necessary on the issue of migration policy and whether Poles, as a nation, are able to open up to solutions for migrants to a greater extent. Because this is the only relatively short-term solution that will maintain and perhaps reduce the loss of Poles and people living in Poland, said Dr. Iga Magda.
Fewer births – Central Statistical Office data
Economist and economic analyst Rafał Mundry published on social media data from the Central Statistical Office, which shows that 22.1 thousand were born in Poland in September. children – by 4.6 thousand less than a year ago (26.7 thousand births). According to the Central Statistical Office data, 30.6 thousand people died in September 2023. people (3.9 thousand less than a year ago).
Read more: The birth curve drops dramatically >>>
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