The COVID-19 pandemic, the Constitutional Tribunal’s ruling on abortion and the war in Ukraine – these are, according to economist and economic analyst Rafał Mundry, the main reasons for the drastic decline in birth rates. – We need to consider how to encourage Polish women with various instruments to want to have more children – he said in an interview in the “Day in the World” program on TVN24 BiS.
Economist and economic analyst Rafał Mundry published on social media data from the Central Statistical Office, which shows that 22.1 thousand were born in Poland in September. children – by 4.6 thousand less than a year ago (26.7 thousand births). According to the Central Statistical Office data, 30.6 thousand people died in September 2023. people (3.9 thousand less than a year ago).
– There are two factors that cause the birth curve to drop dramatically. It looks like it was an avalanche. The first factor is the boom of the 1990s. It is going away. Back then, 700,000 people were born. children and later these numbers dropped to 500,000. kids. Now there are fewer women of reproductive age – he said in the “Day in the World” program on TVN24 BiS. – The second factor is the falling fertility rate – he added.
The economist emphasized that Polish women have wanted to have fewer children in recent years. He pointed out that we have no influence on how many women are currently of childbearing age. – However, we need to consider how to influence the second factor and how to use various instruments to encourage Polish women to want to have more children – he added.
The analyst drew attention to the age at which Polish women decide to have children. – It’s an age that moves up. This is a trend we are seeing all over the world. Currently it is 28-29 years, and 20 years ago it was 23 years when the first offspring was born. This is a factor that causes fewer children to be born, he said.
Pandemic, judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal, war in Ukraine
Rafał Mundry emphasized that a significant decline in the number of births was recorded in 2020 after the outbreak of the pandemic COVID-19. Therefore, according to the economist, Poles were afraid that health care did not work and expressed economic insecurity.
– The second factor is October 2020, i.e. the judgment of the Constitutional Tribunal, and from that moment on, fewer children are born – he emphasized. Mundry also assessed that the third factor is the decreased sense of security associated with the explosion war in Ukraine.
Main photo source: Shutterstock