On Saturday, the fourth round of Iran's talks from the USA about the Iranian nuclear program will start in Rome. On Friday, Iranians will also meet with officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of France, Germany and Great Britain.
Last Saturday, the eyes of world leaders again turned to the Oman capital, Mascat. American and Iranian negotiators met there on third round conversations Fr. new nuclear agreementwhich aims to limit the atomic program Tehran in exchange for abolition sanctions. The key thread of conversations is the issue enrichment of uranium By Iran.
Contrary to the initial boisterous announcements of the President of the USA Donald Trump The talks are not direct, and the role of a mediator was taken by the Oman Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr al-busaidi.
The choice Oman on the broker is not accidental: this rich country Persian bay For years, he has been a connector in the exchange of messages between the two sides.
Breakthrough Iran-Usa conversations. The fourth round is approaching
Delegations are managed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran Abbas aragczi i Steve Witkoffofficially Trump's envoy on Middle Eastwhich initially was to help negotiate the truce on the Israel-Hamas line in the Gaza Strip, and later the American efforts of a truce between his shoulders were also placed on his shoulders Ukraine a Russia.
The plan on Saturday was as follows: first expert talks between lower -level officials, and later – conducted by Oman intermediaries – negotiations between Witkoffem i Aragczim.
The Iranian head of diplomacy admitted that the negotiations were “more serious than before”. Both parties began to discuss more detailed technical issues related to nuclear program And – as Aragczi said – they are satisfied with the progress, despite the “significant” differences in some aspects.
According to Marcin KrzyżanowskiExpert for the Middle East and a former diplomat, descent of the topic of conversations to more meticulous technical issues This is a “very positive” signal.
– I am still moderate optimist when it comes to the possibility of concluding agreements between the USA and Iran. The very fact that the talks took place was a fairly large breakthrough – emphasizes Iranist.
JCPOA, or how Donald Trump broke the key contract
Relations on the Tehran-Washington line have been hostile for over 45 years, i.e. from the explosion rIslamic evolution in Iran.
The next step towards their deterioration was the withdrawal of the USA with JCPOAi.e. key nuclear agreements Between Iran and world powers – which took place in 2018, during the first term of Trump in the White House. Agreement concluded during the presidency Barack Obama In 2015, it was aimed at limiting the Iranian uranium enrichment program to make it difficult to access him nuclear weaponsin exchange for relieving international sanctions.
Trump's movement met with broad criticism, and since then Iran significantly exceeded the restrictions provided for in the contract enrichment of uranium. As a result, Western powers accuse Tehran that he secretly strives to build nuclear bombswhich the Iranian authorities deny.
Iran nuclear program – what is known about it?
– Iran's nuclear program is a very complicated matter and in fact no one but the Iranians themselves has full knowledge about its advancement and final shape. What is repeated very often is the information that Iran from the construction of a nuclear bomb divides “several months”. However, I once went to the trouble, browsing press archives And already in the 1980s, in the serious titles of the American and Israeli press, information appeared that Iran is “a few months, up to half a year” since building a nuclear bomb. And every year it repeats … – notes Marcin Krzyżanowski.
Experts believe that though Iran He still has not obtained nuclear bombsis constantly expanding his capabilities in this direction. In addition, this country has an attacking capacity for the USA medium -range ballistic missiles, which he benefited twice last year Israel. It was these Iranian's “abilities” that was Trump's argument in favor of withdrawing from JCPOA.
According to our interlocutor Iran It does not depend at this point in building nuclear bombsbut on achieving The status of a test statei.e. one that has a sufficient amount of fissile material, appropriate technology, nuclear weapon transfer means, which – in an emergency – would be able to build such a bomb within a few weeks.
– As long as Iran does not have a nuclear bomb, it is possible to juggle, negotiate and compromise for so long – he emphasizes.
Middle East. The tension in the region is growing
The negotiation time itself is also special. In the face of growing tensions on Middle East – First of all, on the Iran -Israel line – Trump, known for his transactional nature, wants to calm the situation and improve relations with Arab countries.
Krzyżanowski emphasizes that for the Republican an important starting point are Abraham agreementsconcluded between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the USA during his first term in the White House. They are considered the first normalization of Tel Aviv relations with Arab countries since the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel in 1994.
– without calming the situation in the Gaza Strip and at least stabilizing the situation with Iran any breakthrough political agreement with Arab countries It will be impossible. In addition, in Iran's matter, he has quite a lot to say Russia – Although he is not a leading player here, it may turn out – as it has happened in the past – such a language in a vibration, which is a deciding which side of the shawl will prevail – adds the former diplomat.
Iran – economic problems. Expert: Sanctions really work
So is the vision of the abolition of American sanctions would be for Iran sufficient encouragement? Tehran showed to some extent that he can deal with them. The country does not go bankrupt, so in the radical circles of Iranian politics there is a belief that if Iran does not win in this conflict, at least it draws. And this means that the price of every concession to Tehran has increased significantly since JCPOA.
However, according to Marcin Krzyżanowski, Iran By signing the aforementioned contract, he already proved that he was able to seriously limit his own nuclear program.
– contrary to increasingly common opinions sanctions They work. Their task is not to bring to economic bankruptcy, because the state with its own currency cannot go bankrupt, but sanctions with soul Iranian economy and keep her in a state of permanent crisis, make it More and more Iranians live below the poverty border. Pauperization, on the other hand, promotes the growing social tensions, and the rulers with the Islamic Republic are not interested in suppressing subsequent ones protests – he explains, indicating that most of the Iranians, frustrated over 37 % inflationis “after” an agreement with the West.
Ukraine, Gaza Zone, Iran. Donald Trump's strategy
On the other hand, though Trump i Witkoff They are efficient businessmen, they may not necessarily turn out to be good negotiators – which can be seen from the current impasse on the Washington -Moscow line.
The “maximum negotiations” option opened by Trump, regarding many new -line fronts of America – which international public opinion received it as a political madness – in fact it was the opposite: an advertisement, what benefits Washington expected. Something that has so far found its outlet in political lobby was spoken out loud. It seems that the Republican wants to close the Eastern European front and the Middle East fight to be able to focus on Pacific and stopping Chinese expansion of influence.
This explains why Witkoff In Qatar, he dictated a truce Israel and Hamas (supported by Iran, and once and Russia), then went with a similar mission to Moscow. And although both wars differ significantly, for Trump they have one common dimension: they are far and distract Washington from the key competition with China.
The fourth round of Iran-US negotiations. New information
As the Middle East is “connected vessels” (and Trump wants to “do dealers”), to cling to the geopolitical puzzle of the republican also needs to stabilize the situation with Teranem.
– I think there is a good chance of concluding agreementalthough it will probably not be as groundbreaking as JCPOA. If there are slightly more offers from the American side on the table, Iranians will be willing to consider any sensible proposal. Both sides are under quite a lot of pressure: the American side is under the pressure of the internal anti -Iwran opposition – both in the womb of Democrats and Republicans – and Iranians fight the economic crisis. I expect that in such a situation the likely scenario is to conclude some temporary, less agreement i Continuation of conversations about a contract for JCPOA – sums up Marcin Krzyżanowski.
The previous two rounds of US-IRAN negotiations took place on April 12 in Mask and April 19 in Rome. At that time, representatives of both sides positively assessed their effects, at the same time, emphasizing unflagging distrust.
The issue seems to be the key in negotiations enrichment of uranium by Iran. American Secretary of State Marco Rubio He recently announced that if Tehran wants to conclude a contract with the USA, he would have to stop enriching uranium and the fuel needed for atomic power plant It could be imported from other countries. On the other hand, the Iranian authorities repeat that although they are prone to certain compromises, they will not agree to the ban on enriching uranium, which they treat it as “red line” in negotiations.
Iran However, he went a step further – he proposed a meeting on his nuclear program Germany, Great Britain and France. As Reuters confirms, it will take place in Rome on Friday. According to the agency, the fourth round of Iranian talks with the Americans will also take place in the Italian capital.
Everything seems to indicate that Tehran, handed by sanctions, no longer intends to wait and will try to use the “window” opened by Trump to talk to all interested parties.