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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

CBOS poll, November 2021. PiS, KO, Poland 2050, Konfederacja i Lewica would now enter the Sejm

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Law and Justice could count on 29 percent of the votes of declared voters if they were held in the first half of November, according to a poll by the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS). Koalicja Obywatelska and Poland 2050 were also on the podium. They received 18 percent and 12 percent, respectively. The Confederation and the Left would also enter the Seym.

A poll by the Public Opinion Research Center shows that if the parliamentary elections were held in the first half of November, five groups would have entered the Sejm. According to CBOS, in November, although with a slight correction, the decline in support for the ruling coalition recorded in the second half of October was confirmed.

Willingness to vote for Law and Justice is expressed by 29 percent. declared participants of the elections. As in previous months, this is the largest percentage of them. Compared to the measurement from two weeks ago, support for the ruling coalition increased by 1 percentage point, but it is still clearly lower than the average for the ten months of this year (34.1%).


The Civic Coalition and Poland 2050 by Szymon Hołownia on the podium

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In second place, as before, was the Civic Coalition with 18 percent. support. Compared to October, Donald Tusk’s party gained slightly (an increase by 1 point).

Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 is still third, for which 12 percent is to vote. declared participants of the elections – the same number as in the second half of October.

Confederation and the Left are still in the Sejm

As CBOS points out, if the elections were held now, the chances of introducing their representatives to parliament would also have: Confederation Freedom and Independence, with 6 percent of the declared voters. supporters (2 percentage points less than in the second half of October and the same as in the first half) and the Left, whose support for two measurements is on the verge of the election threshold (5%).

As before, the ratings of the PSL-Polish Coalition (2 percent, a drop by 1 percentage point) and Kukiz’15 (1 percent) are below the election threshold.

Over 20 percent of voters undecided

If the parliamentary elections were held in the first half of November, 76 percent would like to participate. entitled to vote – 2 percentage points more than in the second half of October. The percentage of people hesitating whether to take part in a possible vote decreased (11%, a decrease by 3 points), while the number of respondents who rejected participation in the elections in advance has slightly increased (13%, an increase by 1 point).

As in the last two months, also in November there is an exceptionally large group of people who would like to take part in the elections, but refrain from unequivocally supporting any party or do not know who to choose – emphasizes CBOS.

22 percent (decrease by 1 point) of declared election participants, when asked about her party sympathies, she chose the answer “It’s hard to say”. 4 percent voters (1 point increase) refused to answer this question for some reason.

CBOS also emphasizes in the announcement that all changes recorded this month are statistically insignificant.

CBOS survey

The study “Current problems and events” was carried out under the mixed-mode procedure on a representative named sample of adult Polish residents, drawn from the PESEL register.

Each respondent chose one of the methods on his own: direct interview with the interviewer (CAPI method), telephone interview after contacting the CBOS interviewer (CATI) – the respondent received contact details in the CBOS announcement letter, self-completion of an online questionnaire to which access was possible based on the login and password provided to the respondent in the announcement letter from CBOS (CAWI).

In all three cases, the questionnaire had the same set of questions and structure. The survey was carried out from 4 to 14 November 2021 on a sample of 1,100 people (including: 56.1% using the CAPI method, 29.8% – CATI and 14.1% – CAWI).

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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