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Monday, June 17, 2024

Central Statistical Office data – average salary, industrial production, retail sales. Results of Orlen, PZU, PGE, JSW, Pepco, and Allegro. This will be the week in the economy

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This week, the Central Statistical Office will publish a series of data for April. This includes wages and retail sales. The Ministry of Finance will hold the only bond auction in May. Investors are waiting for a flood of publications of quarterly reports on the WSE, including those of Orlen, PZU and PGE. The Sejm meets on Wednesday and Thursday.

Key data from the Central Statistical Office

From the macro perspective, the market's attention will be paid on Wednesday and Thursday to the publications of the Central Statistical Office, which will release key data from the Polish economy. After mixed data for March and preliminary reading GDP for Q1 (1.9% y/y), observers will interpret the data in the context of the consensus thesis about the ongoing economic recovery in 2024. The Central Statistical Office readings will be complemented on Friday by information from the National Bank of Poland on the money supply for Q4.

“We expect confirmation of current trends in the labor market, a clear rebound in production in industry and construction after the March collapse (this will be helped by the opposite working day effect than in March), a slowdown in retail sales resulting from the calendar effect (early Easter) and continued positive consumer sentiment. “- wrote economists from Santander Bank in the week's announcement.

“If it turns out that the set of information again diverges from expectations, showing weaker-than-expected results, we should start considering a downward revision of economic growth forecasts for this year. For now, however, we are optimistic and hope that the data will rather confirm the scenario of gradual recovery we expect,” they added.

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Bond sales

On Thursday, the Ministry of Finance will hold the only bond auction in May. It may attract greater interest than usual due to the results of the April auction, at which, for the first time in a long time, the Ministry of Finance placed fewer securities than indicated by the lower supply ranges according to the ministry's information. In the monthly plan for May, the Ministry of Finance initially assumed supply at the level of PLN 5-10 billion.

Proceedings of the Sejm

The Sejm will deliberate on Wednesday and Thursday. On the first day of the meeting at The Sejm Committee on Constitutional Responsibility has scheduled a meeting at 1:00 p.m. The official agenda of the meeting does not include an item regarding the discussion of the comments submitted by the Speaker of the Sejm to the preliminary motion to bring the President of the NBP before the State Tribunal, which is to be considered by the committee. Also on Wednesday, at 10.00, the Minister of National Defense will present information on the state of Poland's security to the Sejm.

A flood of publications of stock exchange companies

On the WSE, investors will spend a week analyzing numerous quarterly reports of large and medium-sized companies. PZU, PGE, JSW, VRG, Auto Partner and Wirtualna Polska will publish their results on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Orlen, Cyfrowy Polsat, Inter Cars, Polenergia, Tauron, Enea, Ferro, Śnieżka, Selvita, Celon, Murapol and Ailleron will do it. On Thursday, attention will be focused on the reports of Pepco, Allegro, Wittchen, Grupa Pracuj, Mirbud, Archicom, Develia, Poltreg and Neuka. The week will end with the results of Agora, Amica, Comarch and Torpol.

Last week, the WIG20 index increased by approximately 2 percent, and according to analysts, the prospects for its further quotations look promising for now.

“The technical consequence of WIG20 closing the week in the area of ​​2,575 points is (…) establishing a base for the attack on the peak of the bull market, which lies in the area of ​​2,578 points. The market remains in the game for a breakout from consolidation in the zone of 2,578-2,530 points, which dominated the last sessions and which is the last important barrier before the WIG20 meets resistance in the area of ​​2,650-2,650 points. (…) In practice, one good session is enough to break the 2,600-point level and two to test the resistance at 2,650 points resistance points should be sought only around 2,900 points, so in the coming weeks the market will be trying to open the way for WIG20 to the levels last seen in 2011,” says DM BOŚ analyst Adam Stańczak.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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