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China-Russia. OSW expert: China wants Putinism to survive in Russia, but does not want to get involved in a losing war

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For China, the most important thing is the survival of Putinism in Russia, because it is a political arrangement favorable to them, assessed Dr. Michał Bogusz from the Center for Eastern Studies (OSW). In his opinion, Beijing calculates and waits for developments in the war in Ukraine before making a decision on Moscow’s military support.

– If the Russians are able to maintain their territorial gains, and the prolonged conflict drains the resources of the West, the Chinese may decide that it is worth taking the risk and helping Putin. However, if they consider that Russia will lose and lose quickly, which will threaten authoritarian rule in Russia, they may urge Putin to “write off losses” – the analyst said in an interview with PAP.

>> War in Ukraine – report on tvn24.pl

– The development of events on the battlefield will be decisive, therefore a quick and decisive victory Ukraine would be so important – assessed Dr. Bogusz.

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In his opinion China they will not stop supporting Russia as long as there is a political arrangement favorable to Beijing. “There will be some minor skirmishes or arguments, especially if Beijing decides it has to save Putin from itself in context war in Ukraine. However, both sides believe that there is no alternative to their alliance, and they consider the West to be the greatest threat, the expert said.

Bogusz about the possibility of supplying arms to Russia

The communist authorities of the PRC have not condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine and oppose the sanctions imposed on Moscow. Administration USA recently announced that Beijing is considering supplying arms and ammunition to Russiaand strongly warned him against such action.

– Today we have no evidence that the People’s Republic of China supplies weapons as such to Russia. However, more and more dual-purpose products come from China, without which, it seems, it would be more difficult for Russia to conduct warfare: from food rations, through clothes, to means of communication and all kinds of sensors needed to build weapons – noted Dr. Bogusz.

READ ALSO: How Chinese arms companies do business with Russia. CNN: helicopter parts deliveries


According to the expert, reports that Beijing was checking the possibility of supplying Moscow with weapons may be a signal for the West to resume negotiations with China, but it may well be a warning from the West not to think about it. One cannot rule out the theory that Russia is behind such leaks to further worsen China’s relations with the West.

OSW expert: China fears being entangled in a “lost enterprise”

According to an OSW analyst, China may withhold arms supplies to Russia due to fears of being involved in a “lost venture”. In his opinion, in the event of a complete Russian victory, i.e. the seizure of all of Ukraine and the absorption of Belarus, Beijing would no longer have to fear Western sanctions.

– This is what Putin is counting on, and he probably still says so to (Chinese leader) Xi Jinping. Beijing plays carefully. He does not want to expose himself to sanctions, but he also does not want to lose the opportunity if Putin succeeds, but he can count on this success only in the event of a crisis in the West, leaving Ukraine, internal tensions and breaking the sanctions of many countries – said Dr. Bogusz.

– In that case, Beijing would no longer have to fear sanctions. That’s why they wait. If Russia starts to lose quickly, they will not invest in this project, the analyst assessed.


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