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China – Taiwan. “New York Times”: China sees itself in Russia’s position, looks to Ukraine for clues

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From the importance of supply lines to the use of satellites to the effectiveness of nuclear threats. According to the New York Times, Chinese military analysts are closely following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the American daily, the monitoring of Russian military operations can be used to search for clues in the event of a possible attack on Taiwan.

The American daily reached such conclusions on the basis of almost 100 scientific and press articles in which Chinese military experts and analysts of the defense sector assessed the course of events on Ukraine.

Chinese experts analyzed, among other things, the use by Russia hypersonic missiles in the context of China’s development of such weapons. They also drew attention to the use by Ukrainian soldiers of communication via Starlink satellites. They warned that China must develop its own system of such satellites and find ways to disable the enemy’s system.

“We should focus on shortcomings revealed in Russia’s military logistics and supplies” and China must prepare for similar challenges “as we consider future sea crossings, island captures” and other risky operations magazine published by the Chinese military technology development agency.

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Vladimir Putin met with Xi Jinping. Photo from March 23GRIGORY SYSOEV/PAP/EPA

“They see each other potentially in the situation of Russia”

China hasn’t fought a proper war in 40 years since then-leader Deng Xiaoping sent troops to neighboring Vietnam in 1979. That is why Chinese analysts study conflicts in other countries with particular care. War in Ukraine is particularly important to them because it concerns Russia, China’s close partner, and indirectly also concerns the United States and other Western countries supporting Ukraine.

According to Lyle J. Goldstein, an expert from the Washington-based Defense Priorities think tank, China is following this war more closely than the conflicts in Iraq or Afghanistan. “They see themselves potentially in the position of Russia, heading more or less toward war with America,” Goldstein assessed.

Read also: Xi Jinping made an “inspection of the future leader of Russia”. He invited him to China

In a broader perspective, Russia’s troubles in Ukraine – caused in the first place by the very fact that Russia decided to strike at a democratic country in violation of international law – have cemented among Chinese officials the belief that Beijing, like Moscow, is in the crosshairs of a Washington-led “hybrid warfare” campaign, which uses sanctions, restrictions on technology exports, information campaigns and cyberattacks, the “NYT” reported.

United States and the West took advantage of this conflict to introduce complete political negation, complete diplomatic containment and complete cultural isolation of Russia (…). Just like the fierce battle, blood and fire on the battlefields, the battle in the field of information and perception is just as intense,” said researcher Gao Yun of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences in a newspaper published by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

Chinese weapons monitoring

According to “NYT”, the successes of the Ukrainians made Chinese analysts focus on intelligence information and equipment provided by NATO countries. They are most likely monitoring Stingers, Javelins and other missiles being delivered to Ukraine, assessing what would happen if Taiwan also stockpiled such weapons, Goldstein assessed.

Nuclear threats have also become the subject of analysis Vladimir Putin. According to Chinese experts, they were effective and prevented Western powers from directly intervening in Ukraine. Such a conclusion may further motivate the Chinese authorities to expand their own nuclear arsenal, the American daily writes.

An expert from the National Defense University in Washington, Joel Wuthnow, is most afraid of Beijing’s misjudgment of the situation in this context. Chinese leader Xi Jinping “may think that the US and its allies will be easily sidelined from the conflict over Taiwan, but that would probably be an error of judgment,” Wuthnow said.

Main photo source: PAP/EPA – Pavel Byrkin / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL

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