Another American duties package, which would be introduced after the current break, can seriously threaten the German industry. According to the simulation prepared by the Munich IFO Institute, in the medium period The industry can shrink by 2.8 percent. Simulation shows that German exports to the US would fall by 38.5 percent. Export to China It can drop by 4.7 percent.
– If US President Donald Trump in fact, he will implement its announcements regarding customs duties, a direct impact on German exports to USA It will be significant – said IFO trade expert Andreas Baur. – However, the positive effects of redirecting trade to other markets can partially alleviate the losses – he added.
Serious losses
According to the report American duties They would particularly hit the automotive and pharmaceutical industry. The first one would have to take into account the losses of value added to six percent. The pharmaceutical industry could even record losses of nine percent. For consolation, the added value for service providers and agriculture would increase by 0.4 percent.
Calculations are based on the assumption that After a 90-day break, Trump will introduce 50 percent of the EU imports at the beginning of July. In addition, 25 % duties are established for pharmaceutical and electronic products, as well as steel, aluminum, cars and car parts. Possible retaliation duties on the part of trading partners have not been included in the calculations.
German export
The dependence of German exporters on the American market is currently the largest in over two decades. Exports to this largest economy in the world last year amounted to EUR 161.3 billion, according to the Federal Statistical Office. This is one tenth – exactly 10.4 percent – all German exports, and thus the highest share since 2002.
The article comes from the website Deutsche Welle.