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Climate change. Expert: Another year of bad experience awaits us

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In many places, we can experience dangerous flooding and more serious flooding, climatologist Bogdan Chojnicki from the University of Life Sciences in Poznań assessed in an interview with TVN24. In his opinion, as a result of a combination of two factors, the current year in Poland may turn out to be “very wet”.

The average global air temperature is about 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its report in May reported that there is a 66% risk that it will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next five years.

As pointed out in an interview with TVN24, climatologist Bogdan Chojnicki from the University of Life Sciences in Poznań, one of the threats posed by global temperature increase is drought. He recalled that “especially in the spring of this year you could observe France, Italy and Spain affected by serious water shortages.” Also Poland in June, especially its northern half, was affected by a severe drought.

Chojnicki pointed out that the second danger associated with global warming is the increasing amount of moisture contained in the air, “this is mainly due to violent weather phenomena, downpours.” – Looking from the perspective of climate change, we are facing another year of excitement, some bad experiences. Extreme weather phenomena, their greater frequency, but also their intensity will become a part of our landscape, and they are already doing so, the specialist pointed out.

Chojnicki: we may experience a more serious flood

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As the TVN24 interlocutor said, when dry air flows from Africa, through Spain, France and Germany to Poland, “usually it is a very hot time for us and then we really experience drought.” In another case, he explained, “hot air passes through a large body of water”, i.e. the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. – Remember that humid air carries a huge amount of water. It is “nervous” because it has a high temperature, i.e. it has a greater tendency to create various phenomena of a stormy nature – described Chojnicki.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if this year turns out to be a very wet year,” he said. In his opinion, “in many places we can experience dangerous flooding” and “more serious flooding”. He explained that it could be “a combination of two factors”. One of them is the phenomenon of El Niño prevailing in the Pacific Ocean. In early June, American researchers reported that after three years of its opposite (La Nina), this climatic anomaly appeared in the Pacificwhich will affect the weather in different parts of the world. – In the year of El Nino, very strange things appear, also in Poland – said Chojnicki. “Second, we have a very warm Atlantic,” he added.

El NinoMaciej Zieliński/PAP/Reuters

“Once you cross that threshold, things will start to take care of themselves”

In 2015, the Paris Agreement committed itself to limiting the average temperature increase on Earth to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Experts warn that rising the average global temperature to this level could have a number of dangerous consequences, such as increasingly severe heat or droughts in Europe and the Amazon, melting sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency of violent weather events.

– After crossing this threshold, de facto things will start to run by themselves – said Chojnicki and as he said, “in the current conditions, the world is warming not at a rate of one and a half degrees, two degrees, but four degrees (above the average for the years 1850-1900 – ed.) “. “In fact, efforts to stop climate change are so insignificant that the scenario to be expected is four degrees Celsius” – the expert assessed.

As he emphasized, this will mean “irreversible changes that are self-propelling and lead the Earth’s climate system to completely different conditions.” He added that limiting global warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius “requires massive efforts, and this is not shown in the statistics.”

It’s getting hotter in the worldAdam Ziemienowicz/PAP/Reuters

Main photo source: Shutterstock



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