Climate change. “Global temperature has fallen by over 0.5 degrees”? What is this chart

The first half of May in Poland was extremely cold. He talked for cloudy, low temperatures and rainfall, among others than Lorenz. “Down jacket in May? Yes, there is insulation in the end” – so on May 17 he ironized in service X Marek Jakubiak, MP of the Free Republican Circle, candidate for president of Poland (he obtained almost 151,000 votes, i.e. 0.77 percent). This and similar entries are elements of the in -spring message about the alleged decline in global temperature of 0.5 degrees Celsius. “Has any of the media informed that the global temperature in just half a year fell by more than 0.5c? Well, because it has dropped. It seems that this inheritance will continue” – April 10 he asked One of the users of the X website (spelling of all entries original).

The proof of his words was to be added to the entry chart with header in English “JRA-55+JRA-3Q 2-METER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY [°C] Global “. On the vertical axis you can see a temperature scale from -1 to 1 degree Celsius. On the horizontal axis there are years from 1990 to 2025. The chart shows a black line, which jumps up and down. There is also one horizontal blue line, which is located at the height of the latest measurement from 2025 years. chart, appeared on Facebook.

Many Internet users argued with the author's conclusions of the entry. “This is a chart of an anomaly of global temperature, not a global temperature – a decrease in deviation does not mean that the temperature itself is falling, because the global temperature is not a constant. And fluctuations are normal, and the trend is clear”; “Temporary decline, long -term growth”; “And that's why you attach a chart showing that the temperature is constantly increasing in the long run?” – they commented.

The chart used in a popular post comes from the side Climatlas.com. It is run by meteorologist Ryan Maue, who admits that people contribute to climate change, but often criticizes The environment of climatic activists and researchers who press a more decisive climate policy. The chart from Climatlas.com is dated April 10, 2025 and shows how much the average air temperature at the earth's surface was different from the average of 1991-2020. The horizontal axis is a time interval from 1990 to 2025. The vertical axis shows the temperature difference in Celsius degrees.

The black line on the chart is climbing and falling, showing whether it was warmer or cooler at the moment than average. Values ​​above zero mean that it was warmer than the average, and the values ​​below zero mean that it was cooler. This is a movable average of the last 30 days. By using such average, researchers “smooth” daily temperature fluctuations to show a general trend. Similar aidness was used for some Covid-19 pandemic statistics.

A thin, light blue line along the horizontal axis just above 0.2. Perhaps this is the average value of temperature anomalies for the entire period or some of it. This would coincide with information in the upper right corner. According to it, the current temperature anomaly, which is 0.26 degrees Celsius (“Current Anomaly: 0.26 ° C”). This means that on April 10 this year, the average global temperature was 0.26 degrees Celsius higher than the average of 1990-2020. The chart does not confirm the thesis about a decrease in global temperature by half -degree Celsius.

Despite the fluctuations from year to year, a clear long -term trend of temperature anomalies can be seen. Especially from around 2015, temperatures seem to be consistently higher than the average. In recent years (after 2015), the black line stays above zero more often and for longer, and even reaches higher values, which suggests that warmer periods are becoming more frequent and more intense.

So this chart shows that the global temperature has an upward trend and that in recent years it is generally warmer than during the reference period. The current reading also indicates that it is warmer than average.

Researchers have been noting an increase in positive temperature anomalies in relation to climatic standards for years. “In 2024, unprecedented global temperatures were recorded, resulting from an unusual increase in temperature in 2023. This year was also the first year in which the average temperature clearly exceeded 1.5 degrees C above the level from before the industrial era – the threshold set in the Parisian agreement” – – – Alarm Copernicus researchers.

The portal previously dealt with the thesis about the decrease in global temperature Demagogue. He explained that the cause of a 0.5 degree Celsius temperature decreased within half a year was a change in southern oscillation (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Enso). It's irregular, but repetitive changes wind patterns and water surface temperature on a tropical, southern pacific ocean. Enso has two extreme phasewhich researchers call from Spanish El Niño (boy) and La niña (girl). Both can influence in the weather all over the world.

In mid -2024, the El Niño phase, which brings insulation of the ocean surface water and reduced rainfall, went into the neutral phase. She stayed for the next few months. Already in December 2024, the next Enso phase began, the so -called weak La niña, which cooled the ocean waters and increases rainfall – explains Demagog.

Two extreme phases of Enso change with one to the other every few years – from 3 to 7 years, states American national ocean and atmospheric service (Noaa). Phase changes are therefore frequent, and the resulting temperature changes – which are akcot. So they cannot play a key role in the process of reversing long -term trend global warming. There is currently no reliable scientific research that would confirm the reversal of this trend.

April 10, 2025 Noaa She informed about the end of the La niña phase after just a few months. Then the Pacific turned into a neutral phase. According to forecasts, this state is to stay throughout the summer until autumn. A very short scientists explain A decrease in temperature and expansion of very warm water west in the Far Eastern Pacific.