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COVID-19: UK ‘unlikely to see catastrophic winter wave’ that requires Christmas lockdown – SAGE adviser | UK Information

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The UK is “unlikely” to expertise a “catastrophic winter wave” of COVID {cases} that may require a Christmas lockdown much like final 12 months, a authorities adviser has mentioned.

Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the federal government’s Scientific Advisory Committee on Emergencies (SAGE), mentioned on Saturday that the UK is in “fairly a distinct scenario” to some European nations reintroducing measures.

“I feel it’s unlikely we’ll get something near what we had final 12 months, that catastrophic winter wave,” Mr Ferguson instructed BBC Radio 4’s At present Programme.

“We will not be complacent, however in the meanwhile I do not assume we’ll be in a scenario the Netherlands is coming into the place they actually do must get on prime of rising case numbers utilizing social distancing.”

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The Imperial Faculty London epidemiologist mentioned that the booster jab rollout and excessive an infection charges earlier this 12 months imply the UK might have larger ranges of COVID-19 immunity than elsewhere.

In response to spiralling {cases} the Netherlands has introduced a three-week part-lockdown, Austria is imposing restrictions on the unvaccinated, and officers are urging folks to cancel massive occasions in Germany.

Figures launched on Friday by the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics (ONS) counsel ranges of COVID locally are falling – from one in 50 for the week to 30 October to 1 in 60 to six November.

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COVID ‘storm clouds’ gathering

Daily cases on Friday have been down round 6.5% on common – at 42,308 – whereas virus-related deaths had additionally fallen by a median of 8.9%.

However regardless of the numbers, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned excessive case charges in Europe might unfold to the UK if these eligible don’t take up their booster jabs.

“I am seeing the storm clouds gathering over components of the European continent and I’ve received to be completely frank with folks, we have been right here earlier than and we bear in mind what occurred when a wave begins rolling in,” he mentioned on Friday.

Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, speaking by video link to the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial Faculty London, talking to the Home of Lords Science and Know-how Committee

“The UK has constructed up an enormous quantity of safety because of the vaccine rollout and other people’s superb willingness to come back ahead and get jabbed.

“What I am saying immediately is the urgency of getting that booster jab is extra evident than ever.”

Professor Ferguson claimed that modelling from the London Faculty of Hygiene and Tropical Drugs suggests increasing boosters to youthful age teams might assist to “drive down transmission to low ranges”.

He would help the JCVI extending the rollout as soon as the 9 precedence susceptible teams have been provided their third doses.

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