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Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Credits. Market situation in 2023 and 2024. Comment by the president of BIK

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Banks, credit unions and lending institutions granted loans and credits in the amount of PLN 182.5 billion in 2023, which is over 25 percent more than in 2022 – reported the Credit Information Bureau. – It looks like 2024 will be better than the year that just ended in every loan category – said BIK president Dr. Mariusz Cholewa on TVN24 BiS.

As BIK president Mariusz Cholewa announced during the conference, at the end of 2023, the sum of all loans and advances to be repaid amounted to PLN 727 billion, which is PLN 5 billion more than a year earlier. He pointed out that banks, credit unions and lending institutions granted new liabilities in the amount of PLN 182.5 billion, which is an increase of over 25%. compared to 2022. The most popular were housing and cash loans, with banks granting PLN 63.9 billion and PLN 73.8 billion, respectively.

Loans in 2023 – data

– The increase in lending in 2023 by 25 percent was due to the creditworthiness of Poles being higher than in 2022 – said the president of BIK. He added that economic factors contributed to this, such as a 1 percentage point drop in the WIBOR rate, a real increase in wages from the second half of 2023 and a stable low level of unemployment at around 5 percent. He emphasized that since the third quarter of last year, the housing loan market was stimulated by the introduction of the government’s Safe Credit 2% program.

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According to BIK, 92.6 thousand people took advantage of the government program. people for a total amount of PLN 27.2 billion, which is 36%. the annual value of lending in the housing loan segment, and in the second half of the year – as much as 51 percent. The Office’s data shows that the statistical beneficiary of the “Safe Credit 2%” program is about 30 years old, and 56.9 percent they incurred the obligation on their own. It was calculated that among all borrowers borrowing 350-500 thousand PLN, as much as 67.1 percent people took advantage of preferential conditions. And from the range between 500 and 600 thousand. PLN, 66.5% benefited. from the beneficiaries. As for housing loans on market conditions, – according to BIK – they were taken out by people over 37 years of age (37.5 years of age), while singles constituted a minority in this group – 31.6 percent.

According to the president of BIK, 2024 will be a year of continuation of the trends from 2023. – The beginning of the year will be slightly supported by this program (Safe loan 2 percent – ed.). Then there will probably be some slowdown because interest rates are still high. There will also be a bit of a wait for this new program. We estimate that it will also be a significant growth stimulator for these loans in the second half of the year. – he pointed out on TVN24 BiS Cholewa.

– We estimate the value of lending at PLN 72 billion. This means an increase of 13 percent compared to 2023, but still 19 percent less compared to the record year of 2021 – said the president of BIK during the conference.

As for the installment loan market, according to BIK, Poles took out 10.5 million of them for a total amount of PLN 22.9 billion. This means an increase in the number of 84.9%. compared to 2022, and the value by 26.7%. The upward trend in the installment loan market has been continuing since 2020 and is mainly stimulated by financing the purchase of electronics and household appliances in installments.

A new type of loans is gaining popularity

It was added that a new impulse will appear on the installment loan market in 2023, i.e. purchases with deferred payment (so-called Buy Now, Pay Later – BNPL). This form of payment for purchases is mostly used by women (approx. 60%) and people up to 44 years old (75%). Almost 80 percent BNPL transactions are amounts up to PLN 200.

– We estimate that the value of lending in the installment loan segment in 2024 will amount to PLN 27.5 billion, which will mean an increase of 20%. compared to 2023. We also forecast a further increase in special-purpose loans to PLN 6.3 billion, which is 56 percent more than in 2023. The increase in the value of lending in the segment of installment loans and targeted loans will be driven by rising wages, the still low level of unemployment, as well as the continuing popularity of deferred payments, i.e. BNPL – said the president of BIK.

According to BIK data, from January to December last year the number of new cash loans increased by 7.3% and their value by 13.7%. The value of newly granted cash loans in 2023 amounted to PLN 73.8 billion. – In 2024, we estimate a further increase in interest in cash loans and cash loans, especially in the context of the growing needs of households as a result of the still increased inflation – said the head of BIK.

The Bureau’s data shows that it remains high interest rates in 2023, did not contribute to improving the quality of loan servicing by households. Housing borrowers are still the best at repaying on time. In their case, the share of overdue loans was 4.2%. at the end of December 2023, which means an increase of 0.8 percentage points over 12 months.

It was indicated that the main factor in the deterioration of the quality of housing loans service are loans indexed and denominated in Swiss franc. Their loss ratio is already 10.4%. value of Swiss franc loans in repayment. In the case of PLN loans, this indicator is 3.2%. Additionally, they had an impact on the quality of the PLN housing loan portfolio credit holidays. According to BIK data, during the entire period of their operation, the holidays covered 1.157 million loan accounts worth PLN 286 billion. Credit holidays affected the quality of the PLN loan portfolio, limiting the possible increase in the loss ratio of PLN loans granted before June 2022.

Main photo source: TVN24 BiS

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