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Crisis on the border. PISM analyst: I do not exclude that Russian border guards or military will be stationed on the border of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Belarus

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Alyaksandr Lukashenka has fallen into an important trap that he may not see now. In fact, the Russian Federation, which is already trying to position itself as a mediator, can de facto gain the most from this conflict on the border with the European Union, said Anna Maria Dyner, an analyst for Belarus from the Polish Institute of International Affairs on TVN24. She noted that “Lukashenka again showed a certain weakness in relation to the Kremlin, he again asked for support from Russia.”

On Tuesday morning at the Kuźnica crossing (closed for a week), there was an attack on the Belarusian side aimed at Polish officers of various services protecting the border. The migrants threw stones, branches and stun grenades at the Polish services and tried to force their way into Poland. The police used water cannons. Tomasz Krupa, spokesman of the Podlasie police said that the attack lasted a total of over two hours.

Anna Maria Dyner, an analyst on Belarus from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said on TVN24 on Wednesday that “it is clear that this operation is very well prepared”. – The determination of the Polish side to defend the border is also checked – she added. – This operation was clearly prepared, since first, let’s call it, large TV forces were gathered there, i.e. teams of both Belarusian and Russian TV – she noted.

Note that about the fact that Lukashenka is preparing “Operation Lock” has been known for several months, Dyner said that “it is not that the state or the other states were not prepared”. – In fact, you could also ask what Lithuania or Latvia did before, the more so that Lithuania was the first victim of this aggression in mid-May – she added.


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Dyner: This operation has evolved

PISM analyst stressed that “this operation has evolved”. – It is not that Alyaksandr Lukashenka, when he started it in May, and in fact when he made a decision about it in the winter of last year, had a one-to-one scenario of how he would work – she said.

She noted that “Russia, which had to give its consent at least tacitly, at the very beginning kept a distance, or at least tried to make an impression.”

She added that this has changed now. “I think even those who are the authors of this special operation did not know exactly what tools they would be using at what point,” assessed Dyner.

Ministry of Interior and Administration: view from a police helicopterTwitter / Ministry of Interior and Administration

Dyner: Lukashenka fell into a trap

PISM analyst noted that not all of Lukashenka’s goals had been achieved. – Among them was an attempt to enforce international recognition and here the Belarusian propaganda certainly made a great use of Angela Merkel’s conversation with Lukashenka the day before yesterday, but it is not quite the case that the European Union played the game that Lukashenka wanted, because he did not go beyond this conversation. no signal from the European Union or the European Union itself in relation to Lukashenka that we want to get along in some way, she said.

She added that the sanctions had not been eased as planned by Lukashenka. – On the contrary. The EU announces further steps and further restrictions, she emphasized.

“Whether these goals will be achieved is an open-ended question because this conflict will continue,” said Dyner.

– Alyaksandr Lukashenka has fallen into one more important trap, which he may not see now. In fact, this conflict can de facto gain the Russian Federation, which is already trying to position itself as a mediator, as a potential state that is able to resolve this conflict, she assessed.

– The second thing is that Alyaksandr Lukashenka has again shown a certain weakness towards the Kremlin, he has again asked for support from Russia. I do not rule out that in a moment it may turn out that on the border of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Belarus or, in principle, with the federal state of Belarus and Russia, they will be stationed either by Russian border guards or Russian military, especially as there is more and more information, also in the western media, it appears that Russian special forces are being seen in the border zone, said Dyner.

State of emergency

Since September 2, due to the migratory pressure in the border zone with Belarus, 183 localities in the Podlaskie and Lubelskie voivodships have been under a state of emergency. It was introduced for 30 days under the ordinance of President Andrzej Duda, issued at the request of the Council of Ministers. The Seym agreed to extend the state of emergency for another 60 days.

Journalists have no access to the area under the state of emergency. When reporting on the events at the border, the media can use almost exclusively official government recordings and information.

By the middle of next year, a steel barrier will be erected on the Podlasie section of the border with Belarus, topped with barbed wire and enriched with electronic devices. The dam will be 180 km long and 5.5 m high. Along the border, motion sensors as well as day and night cameras will be installed. The Bug River is a natural dam on the section of the Polish-Belarusian border in the Lubelskie Voivodeship.

Main photo source: PAP / Ministry of National Defense

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