The entire operation at the border has very specific goals from the point of view of the Belarusian authorities, said Anna Maria Dyner, an analyst for Belarus from the Polish Institute of International Affairs on TVN24. She assessed that “first of all, Vladimir Putin could detain Alyaksandr Lukashenka, possibly Lukashenka himself, given that this border crisis may bring him more harm than good in the long run.” However, she noted that it does not seem possible at present. According to Dyner, such a policy of Belarus could be stopped by very strong sanctions of the European Union.
According to information from Polish authorities and services, as well as videos posted by them on social media, from Monday morning a large group of migrants gathered on the border between Belarus and Poland, making attempts to cross the border by force. The Ministry of National Defense informed the same day in the afternoon that the Ministry of Interior and Administration services and soldiers had managed to stop the first mass attempt to cross the border. The migrants set up a camp in the Kuźnica region. They are guarded by the Belarusian services.
Dyner was asked on TVN24 if anyone could stop Lukashenka. – First of all, Vladimir Putin could detain Alyaksandr Lukashenka, or possibly Lukashenka himself, given that this border crisis may bring him more harm than good in the long run, she replied.
– It doesn’t seem possible today. That is, the entire operation, which has been underway since mid-May, is being developed and escalates to an increasingly dangerous side, has very specific goals from the point of view of the Belarusian authorities, Dyner stressed.
She said that “these are internal goals, that is, distracting attention from the violation of human rights and the economic situation in Belarus, but on the other hand there are foreign goals.”
– In this way, Lukashenka is trying to force Western countries and the European Union to negotiate, to ease sanctions and to have him recognized as the legitimate president of Belarus – assessed Dyner.
Dyner on checking the readiness to protect the borders of the European Union, NATO
She noted that he had not yet achieved these goals. – In addition, it is worth adding the entire aspect of security, which also developed during this operation, which lasted more than half a year. It is an element of checking the readiness to protect the borders of the European Union, NATO, and countries such as Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. It is also undermining morale, because the longer this type of operation takes, the more difficult it is for those who defend this border, said Dyner.
She added that “this is also testing the cooperation of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia with allies, the reaction of the European Union or NATO, and possible attempts to undermine, in particular, the Polish position within NATO or the European Union, and that is the purpose of all the propaganda that accompanies this operation to a large extent. where the allegedly inhumane actions of Polish services that defend the Polish border are shown. “
Dyner: very strong EU sanctions could stop Belarus from doing this
When asked if the subsequent sanctions imposed on Belarus could stop this, she said that “some of the sanctions would be able to stop this kind of Belarusian policy”.
– On the other hand, it would have to be very strong sanctions by the European Union, very firmly regarding, for example, a ban on trading in all petroleum products or all potassium fertilizers or even, this is also an extreme option, expelling Belarus from the swift interbank settlement system – assessed the analyst from PISM.
– The European Union could also think about imposing sanctions, for example on those airlines that deliver migrants to Minsk. Perhaps the very threat of imposing such sanctions would change the policy, she added.
The state of emergency at the border with Belarus
Since the spring, the number of attempts to illegally cross the Belarusian border with Lithuania, Latvia and Poland by migrants from the Middle East, Africa and other regions has increased sharply. The EU and its member states believe that this is the result of the deliberate actions of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime, which instrumentally uses migrants in response to sanctions.
From September 2, due to the migratory pressure in 183 localities in the province. Podlasie and Lubelskie, adjacent to the border with Belarus, a state of emergency is in force. A dam is to be built on the border with Belarus in the first half of 2022.
When reporting on the events at the border, the media can use almost exclusively official government recordings and information. Journalists have no access to the area under the state of emergency.
Main photo source: MON