Education Minister Przemysław Czarnek does not believe that PiS’s electoral result among young voters was a failure after eight years in power. However, his party took last place in the 18-29 age group in the elections. And it was the young who decided about PiS’s victories in 2015 and 2019.
“Don’t you have the impression that you have discouraged a very large group of young voters from PiS with your ‘clunky policy’?” – he answered this question from the listener on October 24 on Radio Zet Minister of Education and Science Przemysław Czarnek.
“It seems that a similar number of young people aged 18 to 29 voted for PiS as for Confederation or Third Way. I do not think it was a failure after eight years of government,” replied the Minister of Education and Science.
The National Electoral Commission does not collect data on the age of voters voting for particular parties. Ipsos, which conducted an election poll on the day of the parliamentary elections, collected this information. Let’s take a look at them.
PiS has the worst result among young people from the parties in the new parliament
According to the late poll the youngest group of voters was most willing to choose the candidates of the Civic Coalition – they gained support of 28.3 percent. The second result was achieved by the candidates of the Left – 17.7 percent, and the third result by the candidates of the Third Way – 16.9 percent. Confederation recorded a slightly worse result among the youngest voters – 16.6%. The last, fifth position among the committees that got to the Sejm – with the support of 14.9 percent. – taken by PiS candidates.
In terms of facts and absolute numbers, Minister Czarna is right: a similar number of young people actually voted for PiS as for Confederation or Third Way. The difference is about two percent of the votes. Nevertheless, among the parties that entered parliament, PiS received the fewest votes. So it suffered an electoral defeat.
Young people helped PiS win in the 2019 elections. Now they voted differently
PiS’s defeat is even more visible if we analyze the youth voting results from 2019. It was their votes that Law and Justice won with the support of 26.3 percent. Now the candidates of this party obtained a result lower by as much as 11.4 percentage points. This is the most far-reaching drop in support compared to the previous parliamentary elections.
The Civic Coalition, which now triumphed among voters aged 18-29, gained four percentage points compared to 2019. What is noteworthy is the increase in support – by seven points – for the Third Way, but the result from four years ago is compared to the result of PSL, which started independently at that time (Polska 2050, which did not exist at that time). The Confederation’s candidates lost among the youngest voters. Four years ago they achieved a result of 19.7%. support. Now by 3.1 points. percent lower.
The minister talked about an eight-year perspective. In 2015, PiS won in every age group. Among voters aged 18-29, 26.6 percent The second highest result in the 18-29 age group was achieved by the Kukiz’15 committee. As many as 20.6 percent voted for him. the youngest voters. 16.8% of voters voted for the KORWiN party. young voters (18-29 years old), and the Civic Platform in this group was trusted by only 14.4 percent. voters.
Mobilization of young people
The decision of young people to go to the polls was also important for the opposition’s electoral result. While in the 2019 elections turnout in the 18-29 age group was the lowest of all groups (46.4%), this year it was 68.8%. entitled.
The fewest voters (67%) who went to vote in the parliamentary elections on Sunday were in the group over 60 years of age. The most disciplined group voting in the elections on Sunday were voters aged 50-59 – among them the turnout was as high as 83.2%. Second place was taken by voters aged 40-49 (78.5%), followed by people aged 30-39 (72.3%).
Main photo source: Art Service/PAP