Czechs haven't heard such a message in a long time. At least since 2002, when the Vltava flooded Prague. Or even since 1997, when the great flood devastated Moravia.
From Thursday to Sunday, it will rain in almost the entire country. And it will rain heavily. According to the forecast of the Czech Hydrological Institute, which issued a warning on Wednesday about approaching extreme rainfall, in some places in the country it may fall up to 300 liters of water per square meter.
In four days as in half a year
But there are also forecasts predicting precipitation exceeding even 450 liters. That is how much may fall until Sunday in the Jeseníky Mountains – mountains in northern Moravia bordering the Śnieżnik Massif dominating the Kłodzko region, the highest range of the Polish Eastern Sudetes. On Saturday alone, up to 200 liters of water per square meter may fall there.
For comparison: in the Czech Republic, the average monthly precipitation in September in the years 1991-2020 was 60 liters, and in July, which brings the most rain, only half as much. In short, over the next four days, as much water may fall in the Czech Republic as falls on average in half a year. Only on Saturday could there be more than usual for three months. Of course, not everywhere. The problem is that, especially in the mountains, the water flows very quickly and rapidly floods what lies below.
Like in a disaster movie
Journalists in Prague haven’t attended a press conference like the one on Wednesday afternoon in a long time. As each minister spoke, their words sounded more and more like a disaster movie script.
The head of the Ministry of Environment, Petr Hladík, began and immediately very strongly. “The situation that awaits us in the next four, maybe even five days, will be very similar to the situation in 1997 and 2002,” he said. It is supposed to rain from midnight Wednesday to Thursday, first in the south, then in an increasingly large area, and finally in the whole country.
Hydrometeorologists predict extreme precipitation first in half of the country, and on Saturday even in two thirds of its area. It is to rain mainly in Moravia, the Beskids and the Jeseníky Mountains, but the area of extreme precipitation will reach the Karkonosze Mountains in the north, the main ridge of which runs through limit Polish-Czech, and in the south to Šumava, the mountains separating the Czech Republic from Germany, which on the other side are called the Bavarian Forest.
It will therefore rain in the basins of all the great Czech rivers, both the Vltava, which flows from Šumava and, behind Prague, flows into the Elbe, which flows from the Karkonosze Mountains and carries its waters to Germany, and the Oder, which flows into Poland, as well as the Morava, which has its source under the peak of Śnieżnik Kłodzki, flows around the Jeseníky Mountains, flows through the whole of Moravia, and joins the Danube just before Bratislava.
A more optimistic scenario
According to Minister Hladík, the wave of precipitation will stop in the mountains in the north of the country, after which it will gradually start to reverse. This is where the greatest danger lies: while the first rain will fall on dry soil, which will be able to absorb a lot of water, the one that will come two days later will have nowhere to soak. This is exactly what happened in 1997, during the flood in Moravia.
An additional problem will be the strong wind, which according to the Minister of the Environment can reach gusts of up to 100 kilometers per hour. This in turn creates a risk that trees standing in the softened soil will start to fall under its pressure, thus creating an additional danger to people, their property, cars.
– This is the more optimistic scenario, according to which 395 mm of rain will fall in the Jeseníky Mountains – continued Hladík. That is 395 liters of water per square meter.
Pack your bags, charge your phones
– In this more pessimistic scenario, it will be 452 mm. This will be truly extreme rainfall, which we are preparing for – said the head of the Ministry of Environment. – It is not about scaring or frightening. In no case – he assured and added that if these forecasts do not fully come true, “we will only be happy”. He added that floods threaten not only “classic flood areas” along rivers, where people already have experience. – Flash floods can also appear where no one expects them – explained Petr Hladík.
– The forecasts are not optimistic – admitted Czech Minister of the Interior Vít Rakuszan. He asked the organizers of mass events to consider whether they will be able to ensure people's safety on Friday and Saturday. He appealed to the residents of the threatened areas to pack evacuation luggage, move their cars to higher places, and move valuables things to the upper floors, stocked up on drinking water, charged phones and power banks.
A bridge in Germany is not a priority
Then came the question time. – Germany was supposed to ask the Czech Republic to reduce the flow of water in the Elbe. Will that happen? – asked a Czech Television journalist.
Minister of Agriculture Marek Výborny admitted that such a request had indeed reached Prague via the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe. “Unfortunately, the answer cannot be positive,” he said. On the contrary, the flood threat requires the emptying of reservoirs. This is already happening in Moravia, and in the Vltava and Elbe river basins it will start on Thursday. In Děčín, the last town on the Elbe before the German border, the flow of water will increase from Wednesday to Thursday from 138 to 172 cubic meters per second.
– I believe that the Saxon colleagues will understand that the bridge that actually collapsed cannot have priority and priority over the protection of not only the property and lives of citizens of the Czech Republic, but also of Germans – said Výborny. He added that he had also contacted “a colleague from Poland” to inform him about the threats in Poland in connection with the situation in the Oder river basin.
The article comes from the website Deutsche Welle.