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Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Dangerous triangle. Did Putin and Kim ask for consent?

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It is very likely that after Moscow and Pyongyang's decision to deploy North Korean troops in Ukraine, these countries asked China for permission and received it, says Professor Joel Atkinson from Seoul's Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. According to him, the goals of these three regimes are convergent. – If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will be swept off the board. But if she wins, she will be ready to checkmate Europe, he said.

To the rapprochement between Russia and North Korea and China took place against the backdrop of the invasion Ukraine. According to intelligence services USA and South Korea, the regime in Pyongyang supplied millions of missiles to Moscow, and in October it transported at least three thousand soldiers to Russia.

In turn, the leader of China Xi Jinping and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin declared “borderless friendship” between their countries three weeks before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, China declares a neutral attitude towards this war and claims that it is not sending lethal aid to any of the parties to the conflict. At the same time, they have not condemned the Russian invasion and oppose the sanctions imposed on Moscow.

“Beijing is the dominant partner in this triangle”

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– It is widely believed that the deployment of troops is taking place despite Beijing's objections, said Joel Atkinson, an expert in international relations in East Asia.

As he noted, according to this theory it should be assumed that Xi “is afraid that (the transfer of troops) will strengthen the idea of ​​a new 'axis of evil' and trigger a stronger reaction from the US and its European and Asian allies, and that Russia is reducing Beijing's influence on Korea the North and allow it to behave more brazenly while Beijing wants to control it.”

However, in his opinion, this assumption is based on a misinterpretation of power dynamics and a misunderstanding of the purpose of leaders' actions.

– Most observers agree that without Chinese support, Putin's war effort would collapse and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) would collapse as a country. Beijing is the dominant partner in this triangle, he emphasizes.

“If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will be swept off the board. But if it wins, it will be ready to checkmate Europe, in effect forcing the US to maintain its forces in Europe, and at the same time it will supply Beijing with food, oil and raw materials. In turn, North Korea, equipped in nuclear missiles developed with Russian technological assistance, would be a formidable adversary for South Korea, Japan and the US if it simultaneously engaged in a war with China over Taiwan.

“Their basic goals are convergent”

– The current liberal world order is not a safe environment for any of these three regimes. Xi's number one priority is to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union. He was clear about it. This is an extremely ambitious goal, argues Atkinson. He added, “You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs, and making the world safe for autocracy is not a party.” This is a reference to a phrase popularized by the pro-Prolinist journalist Walter Duranty (some attribute these words to Stalin or Lenin himself) and an aphorism by Mao Zedong from 1927, who wrote that “a revolution is not a dinner party (…) it is an act of violence, whereby one class overthrows the other.”

Atkinson admits that the authorities in Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang may not agree on the chosen tactics and the timing of their implementation.

– What matters, however, is that their basic goals are similar. And even in terms of tactics and timing, the only regime with the means and economic power to confront the West cannot but have veto power. So I think it is very likely that when Putin and Kim decided to deploy (North Korean soldiers), they asked Beijing for permission and received it, he pointed out.

“In other words, Xi himself sat down and discussed it with his most trusted people and decided that, all things considered, it was better to allow it than not,” he concluded.

RUSSIA BRICS SUMMIT

Xi and Putin at the BRICS summit in Russia RUSSIA BRICS SUMMITPAP/EPA/GRIGORY SYSOEV / BRICS-RUSSIA2024.RU / HANDOUT

Expert: Pyongyang's soldiers are supposed to help Putin not to lose

– We must remember why Putin wants North Korean troops: to help him not lose (in Ukraine). Xi may not like the way he wants to achieve this goal, but he shares it, explains Atkinson. He added that it cannot be ruled out that the People's Republic of China came up with its own proposal, but the preparations of Moscow and Pyongyang were already at an advanced stage.

– Considering that Xi does not want Putin to lose, he has no choice but to agree with them and hope that their plan will work – said the expert.

He points out that putting communist China in the role of the so-called a good policeman, not only helps them, but also serves the interests of Russia and North Korea. – The authorities (states) in Europe, instead of taking action against Russia or punishing the DPRK and PRC, are entering into dialogue with Beijing, expecting that a dissatisfied China will appeal for the withdrawal of North Korean troops – notes the expert.

– The problem, of course, is that the deployment of these troops tilts the scales of the war even further to the detriment of Ukraine and, ultimately, all of Europe, and waiting for Beijing only delays (the West's) effective response, Atkinson says. In his opinion, Pyongyang's support for Moscow may have consequences for security not only in Europe, but also in East Asia.

“Putin will not give more than he has to, but he has to give a lot”

Redeploying 12,000 troops at a time when Putin wants to avoid another mobilization among Russians is “very valuable” for the Kremlin, and Pyongyang “will almost certainly receive something of comparable value in return” – this could be, for example, missile technology, nuclear technology, submarines or satellite systems. – Putin will not give more than he has to, but he has to give a lot. And Pyongyang will appreciate all this, Atkinson emphasizes.

However, Russia would not provide direct military assistance to North Korea if an armed conflict broke out on the Korean Peninsula. According to the expert, Russia and China would not want that North Korea lost such a potential war, but all of Moscow's efforts are currently consumed by the invasion of Ukraine. However, thanks to technological support, DPRK's nuclear threats against Washington and Seoul “become slightly more credible, giving North Korea the opportunity to engage in provocations,” even if in reality its combat potential has decreased due to its support for the Kremlin.

Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong UnPAP/EPA/GAVRIIL GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL

Will China attack Taiwan?

The expert admits that in the current geopolitical context, Xi remains cautious about a possible invasion Taiwan. However, if it decides that the time has come, Russia and North Korea will support Beijing because its defeat “would be a devastating strategic defeat for all three.” Russia, for its part, would support Beijing “just below the threshold of engaging in hostilities, but for North Korea it could mean a good moment to launch an invasion of South Korea,” he said.

– Importantly, these joint actions will not result solely from the fact that these countries have convergent strategic interests with Beijing or that they owe something to China for the support they receive – emphasized Atkinson.

– If Russia loses in Ukraine, it will be swept off the board. But if it wins, it will be ready to checkmate Europe, in effect forcing the US to maintain its forces in Europe, and at the same time it will supply Beijing with food, oil and raw materials, the expert said. – In turn, North Korea, equipped with nuclear missiles developed with Russian technological assistance, would be a formidable opponent for South Korea, Japan and the United States if it were to engage in a war with China over Taiwan at the same time, Atkinson said.

Tension around TaiwanPAP/REUTERS/Adam Ziemienowicz

Main photo source: PAP/EPA/GAVRIIL GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / KREMLIN POOL



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