“Dark horse” or “our horse”? Experts about the presidential campaign in “Fakty po Faktach”

The guests of Thursday's “Fakty po Faktach” were Dr. Hab. Karolina Wigura – sociologist, historian of ideas and publicist (University of Warsaw, “Kultura Liberalna”) and Ph.D. Rafał Chwedoruk, political scientist from the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Warsaw.

They discussed, among other things, the upcoming presidential campaign, which may start in mid-January, and the ongoing pre-campaign. National Electoral Commission issued a position according to which the Speaker of the Sejm may order presidential elections on January 15 at the earliest. The election campaign will start when the Marshal's decision is published.

The experts were asked by host Diana Rudnik whether they expected any dark horse to appear in the presidential race. – Let me take a risk and say that this time the dark horse will most likely be Sławomir Mentzen. This is the candidate who engages the voices of people dissatisfied with polarization, disappointed with Law and Justice and disappointed with the first year of the government Donald Tusk – said Dr. Hab. Karolina Wigura.

She also pointed out that “among the currently operating main parties, there is no sensible proposal for entrepreneurs.” – Many entrepreneurs may feel encouraged by the fact that Mr. Mentzen is trying to hide his nationalistic tendencies with the guise of: we are free market here, we will focus on entrepreneurs – she said.

Ph.D. Rafał Chwedoruk asked if Confederation may confuse poll predictions, he replied that “even if this is the case, it will probably be our horse instead of a dark horse.” – He is a well-known candidate who operates within the party system. However, I think that the issue of entrepreneurs is a mythical concept. An entrepreneur is both someone who is a big stock market player and someone who owns a grocery store. I think there are many other willing parties, more powerful than the Confederation, who will try to reach various segments of this electorate – said the political scientist.

Although the official presidential campaign will start in mid-January, according to Dr. Hab. Karolina Wigura “the election campaign in our country continues all the time.” – It ends approximately on election day, when we have already voted, and begins on the same day – said the expert.

– If we look at all the elections that took place around the world this year, we will see that, in fact, election campaigns take place all the time, because the media that operate and to which we are the recipients have completely changed. Now elections are won with social media – the best example is winning Donald Trump In USAbut also the elections in Romania – she added.

She also assessed that the campaign taking place largely on the Internet had “a lot of good and bad sides.” – We know very well that social media allow us to reach new groups of people, but on the other hand it may be like in Romania, where elections are won using Russian influence and hundreds of new TikTok accounts – said Dr. Hab. Wigura.

Ph.D. Rafał Chwedoruk, in turn, said that now “we are in the phase of Christmas banality, where politicians, despite the high voter turnout, are trying to pretend that they are not professional politicians, that they are not a mythical political class, but just one of ordinary citizens.” – The presidential campaign, in terms of form, will of course be very spectacular, because it is the most Americanized element of our politics. (…) The possibilities of the head of state in Poland are much smaller than in the United States, for example – said the expert.

He also assessed that Poland has an “extremely stable party system.” – It is already clear that this presidential campaign in Poland will take place in the formula: Rafał Trzaskowskilong, long nothing, PiS candidate (Karol Nawrocki – ed.) long, long nothing and three candidates: Szymon HołowniaMagdalena Biejat and Sławomir Mentzen – said the guest of “Fakty po Faktach”.

According to both experts, the presidency will also be an important aspect of the upcoming elections Poland in the European Union and the assumption of the presidency in the United States by Donald Trump. – We must remember that at least two important things will happen in 2025. First of all, it is the issue of the presidency of the European Union and the slogan that Donald Tusk's cabinet keeps pushing, i.e. security. The second piece of the puzzle is Donald Trump in the presidential chair in Washington and his plans for Ukraine – said Dr. Hab. Karolina Wigura.

– Now the question is whether Donald Tusk and his cabinet will be able to convince the most important European countries that Europe will play its own important role in securing Ukraine against Vladimir Putin and how it will be perceived by voters – she added.