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Demography. President of the Social Insurance Institution: after 2030, an absolutely large decline in the population will begin

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Until 2030, we have a fairly well-stocked resource of people who will work, which will ensure the stability of the labor market to a large extent, but from 2030 an absolutely large decline in the population will begin – said the president of the Social Insurance Institution, Professor Gertruda Uścińska on Saturday.

– The population of Poland, which is 38.3 million according to the latest census, will decrease to 33.9 million in 2050 and 28.2 million in 2080. At the moment (…) we know that until 2030 we have a fairly well-stocked resource of people who will work, which will ensure the stability of the labor market to a large extent, but from 2030 an absolutely large decline in the population will begin – said Uścińska during the panel at the Law and Justice program convention.

According to her, it is crucial to pursue a professional activity policy regardless of the age of employees, because from the point of view of demographic data for the employer in 2050, the most attractive workforce will be people aged 50-60.

Prime Minister: We want to continue the pro-demographic policy

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Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated during the panel that Law and Justice wants to continue the pro-demographic policy pursued so far.

– Of course, demographics is a big problem and what we have done so far is not something that would give us great satisfaction. But this does not mean, firstly, that it would not be much worse without our pro-family and pro-demographic activities, because it would be much worse. Because we know the paths, projections of the Central Statistical Office regarding the number of births from, for example, 2014, which show that there would be even fewer of these births. We also want to continue our policy without giving up, said the head of the government.

500 plus “didn’t work”

The government’s flagship pro-demographic program was to be 500 plus. However, even PiS president Jarosław Kaczyński admitted that “it didn’t work”.

Recently, the TFR (fertility rate) increased slightly in 2016 and 2017. In 2017 it exceeded 1.453. However, it then started to fall again, reaching 1.378 in 2020 and 1.320 in 2021. Data for 2022 will be published by the Central Statistical Office at the turn of May and June. It is assumed that the minimum value of the coefficient allowing generations to be replaced is 2.10 – 2.15.

The Family 500 plus program was launched on April 1, 2016. Under the programme, families with dependent children are entitled to a childcare benefit in the amount of PLN 500 per child up to the age of 18, regardless of income

.Benefit 500 plus has not been indexed since the program was introduced.

Main photo source: Shutterstock



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