Interest rates have stopped falling, but deposit rates have not. While deposits have not protected against inflation for a long time, now their average interest rate has dropped below 5 percent. There are offers that allow you to earn 7 percent per year, but they are subject to “stars”.
5.78 percent – this was the average interest rate on the best deposits and savings accounts in November 2023 – according to data collected by HREIT. This is less than in October (by 0.3 percentage points).
– The changes are consistent with the trend observed since the beginning of the year. At that time, deposit interest rates were first under the pressure of expected and then actual cuts made by the Monetary Policy Council. interest rates. Although the Council refrained from further cuts in November, forecasts for 2024 suggest that further easing of monetary policy lies ahead. Therefore, there is no reason for banks to stop reducing the interest rates they use to tempt savers, says Bartosz Turek, chief analyst at HRE Investment Trust.
The average interest rate is less than 5 percent.
As Turek notes, changes in promotional deposits usually go in exactly the same direction as the interest rates on actually opened deposits. The latter is usually by at least 1 point. percentage points lower than those offered by banks as part of the most sought-after promotions.
– That is why today – although we still do not have accurate data published by the National Bank of Poland – we can estimate that when saving for an average deposit, compatriots are currently agreeing to interest rates below 5 percent – comments the analyst.
Data collected by HREIT shows that within a month, as many as 7 banks worsened their promotional deposit offers. This also applied to the product which last month, in the face of widespread interest rate cuts, welcomed an 8% deposit in October. and 180 days. However, this was only a temporary promotion and is no longer available today.
When will deposits stop being loss-making?
Back in the summer, there were banks that tempted us with deposits with interest rates of 9 or 10 percent. Now, only memories remain of such offers.
– In the case of deposits for several months, it is now becoming standard to tempt new customers with the promise of paying interest at a level barely exceeding 6-7%. We actually found only one institution that cosmetically exceeds this threshold, but as is usually the case with promotional deposits, the offer is subject to several additional conditions – explains the analyst and points out that if we wanted to avoid transferring money from bank to bank every few months, and If we would prefer to make a deposit for a year, the conditions would be even worse.
In such a scenario, you need to be prepared for offers with interest rates that will barely exceed 5-6%. This is more or less enough to maintain the purchasing power of savings over the next year – provided, of course, that the forecasts formulated today come true.
– On the one hand, it’s good, because since 2016, deposits have not been able to protect us against inflation, but on the other hand, deposits do not offer any chance of spectacular real profits. As a result, it is difficult to count on the fact that by withdrawing the capital with interest after a year, we will be able to buy significantly more than today thanks to a bank deposit – Turek points out.
The analyst reminds that the latest inflation projection prepared by NBP analysts shows that in a year’s time inflation will be around 4.6%. Therefore, we would have to earn about 5.7% on the annual deposit to be able to maintain the purchasing power of savings deposited in the bank after paying the tax on accrued interest (19%). And although banks are able to offer even more for deposits offered for several months, in the case of annual deposits, only leading banks offer such conditions.
– The problem is that if we are actually facing further cuts in interest rates, what does it matter if we get a deposit today with an interest rate of 7 percent? for 3 months, since the offer will probably be worse in a quarter – he notes.
When looking for deposits with better interest rates, we must take into account additional requirements and limits – e.g. the maximum amount and, at most, a period of several months for the higher interest rate. The bank will also usually ask us to use additional products (card, account, mobile application). Most often, promotional deposits are also targeted at new customers or at least people who will bring new funds to the bank.
– However, these are not all the “stars” that banks can use when creating promotions. More and more often, we may be required to regularly top up the account and actively use payment services (card or BLIK). An increasingly common “innovation” is the requirement for people opening deposits to provide the so-called marketing consents. This means that the promotional interest rate will be charged, but only when we allow bank employees to contact us regarding the sale of other products or services – sums up the analyst.
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