Donald Trump and his enemy number one. The collision will also be felt in Poland

On Tuesday president elect Donald Trump announced that the presenter known from right-wing Fox News programs Pete Hegseth will be the new secretary of defense. Hegseth is a former war veteran Iraq i Afghanistanwho thinks that China They are arming themselves to defeat the USA in the future.

New director of the CIA to be the former director of national intelligence John Ratcliffe. Four years ago, the Wall Street Journal published the article “China is the most important threat to US national security.” He stated that stopping Beijing from developing its influence and domination in the world is important the most important task of his generation.

She came US ambassador at UN Elise Stefanik has been drawing attention to the dangers of distributing Chinese communism around the world for years. For a new one Secretary of Commerce is indicated Robert Lighthizerwho co-created the tariff war strategy with China during Trump's first presidency. Even during the election campaign, Trump signaled that goods from China may soon be subject to an additional 60%. customs duties.

If information regarding the new candidate Secretary of State will be confirmed, Marco Rubio will be the first serving US foreign minister banned from entering China. In 2020, China placed him under sanctions for statements about Chinese forced labor camps in Xinjiang and Beijing's suppression of democracy in Hong Kong.

Rubio's nomination for Secretary of State may be an announcement of a diplomatic confrontationwhich – taking into account Trump's unpredictability and the unpredictable reactions of the People's Republic of China – may also lead to chaos in the relations between the two superpowers. Although it's actually the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not officially announce the nature of the sanctions against Rubiothis usually means covering the person and their family ban on entry into the territory of the PRC.

Donald Trump wants to raise customs duties for all goods imported from China o at least 60 percent. After being introduced by European Commission additional tariffs on Chinese electric cars, China not only started its own anti-dumping investigations into goods imported from the EU, but also informally gave a red light to investments in countries that voted in favor of adopting customs duties. She was among them Poland. China will not hesitate to use all its instruments to attack the US economically.

The question remains to what extent they will want to wage wars on two fronts simultaneously with their most important trading partners. Especially given the weakened Chinese economy it is not returning to pre-pandemic rates. Some economic analysts predict that the GDP growth rate in China will slow down to the same level below 5 percent. For the Chinese, after years of double-digit growth, this will be overcoming a psychological barrier. Hinted at as the future Secretary of Commerce Robert Lighthizer made millions suing China on behalf of American companies such as US Steel.

Trump's pre-election meetings included: his presence made the announcement that all goods imported to the US from China would be subject to high tariffs. Even the American media describe their level as… “Draconian”.

It is no secret that one of the main goals of the chairman of China Xi Jinpinga Is taking control of Taiwan. In Chinese party nomenclature it is called “China's peaceful reunification”. Beijing recognizes Taiwan as “rebellious province” part of the People's Republic of China.

However, in practice, the Chinese authorities have no control over Taiwan no control. The Taiwan Strait is slowly becoming calmer one of the most dangerous places on Earth. This is confirmed by the increasingly intense presence of the Chinese army around Taiwan. Recently, the Chinese navy and air force even exercised “blockade” of the islandwhich is considered among experts as one of the most realistic conflict scenarios.

Taiwan depends on weapons and political support from the US. In Taipei, consternation was caused by Trump's election comments that Taiwan had “stole” America's semiconductor industry. He also suggested that if Taipei wants protection, it will pay more for this protection. Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, an expert on Taiwan, expects that we are entering the times unpredictability of Trump's moves towards Taiwan.

-Trump's words were received badly. For now, however, we do not know whether it was an element of the election campaign or an announcement of the directions of policy towards Taiwan, says Interia, an analyst from the Institute for Security and Development Policy based in Taipei.

A stabilizing element for Taipei may be the election of Rubio as secretary of state. For years he has been considered a friend of Taiwan and an advocate of Americans arming the island.

– Initially Beijing saw Trump's election as good news For Communist Party of China – says the head of the Department of Asian Studies at SWPS University in an interview with Interia Marcin Jacoby.

The expert, who is currently in China, heard the first comments that Trump's election is good for China because – from the point of view of the communist authorities – it seals the “US road down”.

– It can mean, first of all internal destabilization of the USAwhich would be good for China if it involves reducing the US role in global diplomacy. For China, any weakening of the US is beneficial. If United States will withdraw from the war on Ukrainefor China too it will be beneficial. This will mean weakness Europe and transatlantic relations. At the same time, the Chinese know that Trump is unpredictable and a lot depends on who is on his team, he says inside Jacoby.

Michał Bogusz, an analyst at the Center for Eastern Studies, predicts that Trump's election may mean a “hot confrontation” between China and the US, although he rejects direct comparisons with the Cold War period.

– The situation will be more dynamic and unstable than during the Cold War between the USSR and the USA. We are entering a very difficult and difficult period for the world, says Bogusz.

The ongoing rivalry between China and the USA also affects our country. On the one hand – at least so far – remaining in a strategic alliance with the USA. On the other hand, it is trying to develop economic cooperation with China. So far – with poor results.

The Chinese use it efficiently in relations with countries European Union “divide and rule” strategy, especially if there is another trade war with the US, they will try to find new allies in the European Union.

For now, Poland is on the sidelines of this rivalry, although the alliance with the Americans sometimes required those in power to make decisions that were unfavorable for relations with China.