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Donald Trump found guilty in criminal trial. How will this affect his support?

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Donald Trump, who was found guilty of falsifying accounting documents, is still a candidate for president. One poll found that just 16 percent of his voters might reconsider their support for Trump if he is convicted. However, support for Trump and Biden is so close that it may tip the scales in favor of the current president in the November elections.

On Friday, not only New Yorkers, but all of America woke up to a completely new electoral reality. – New York is great. This is a city that has never been fooled by this idiot – comments Angela, a resident of New York. – I am stunned, such a verdict is a great surprise, I didn't think it would end like this – says Lindsay Rizzo, a resident of Arizona.

After the first shock of Donald Trump being found guilty of all the charges against him, Americans began to consider how and whether such a verdict might affect the presidential elections approaching in five months. The first conclusion is simple – it is extremely difficult to predict because this is the first time such a situation has occurred in the history of the United States. – What I will say will not be original, because it has been repeated many times since 2016. We are dealing with uncharted territory – here we are again – comments Dr. Meena Bose, a political scientist at Hofstra University.

READ MORE: Donald Trump guilty. What now?

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Donald Trump easily defeated his rivals in the Republican primaries at the beginning of this year, and in a few weeks, during the national convention, he will be officially nominated as a presidential candidate. The thing is that just a few days earlier, a New York court will announce the punishment for Donald Trump.

– The Republican Party has a choice. They may leave Trump as their nominee, even though he has been convicted of a crime, or they may replace him with someone they believe has a better chance of defeating Joe Biden in November, reports Mo Brooks, a former Republican congressman.

Supporters of Donald Trump and Joe Biden after the jury's verdict in the criminal case of the former US presidentTVN24

What do the polls say?

According to polls, the contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is largely deadlocked, although polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, among others, in early May gave Trump a slight advantage in five of six key states – like Michigan , Arizona or Nevada. But other polls suggest a conviction could change all that.

– I believe that all this will have political consequences. There is a large group of people who watched as the former president solicited their votes and raised money to pay his lawyers. His conviction should give people a lot to think about, says Doug Jones, a former senator of the Democratic Party.

SEE ALSO: Donald Trump sentenced. The first reaction of Stormy Daniels, the main witness in the trial

A poll conducted in January this year by Bloomberg and Morning Consult found that 53 percent of voters in key states would refuse to vote for Trump if he were convicted. Another study – this one from April – by Ipsos and ABC News shows that 16 percent of the former president's voters may reconsider their support if he is convicted.

– This election is centered around a very small group of people who will actually have the greatest impact on it. Subsequent research shows that voters are less willing to vote for a convicted candidate, emphasizes Elaine Kamarck from the Brookings Institution think tank.

Experts emphasize that it is difficult to expect that Trump's staunch supporters, who – according to the best estimates – constitute up to 47 percent of his electorate, will suddenly turn away from their candidate after Thursday's verdict of the New York jury.

– I believe that everyone who supported him will still support him one hundred percent, says one of his supporters. – Nothing changes. I'm voting for Trump, says another Trump supporter. – We are angry, but also happy in a sense. There are many convicts walking on the streets, so they can now identify with President Trump, adds another Trump supporter.

Donald Trump found guilty of falsifying accounting documents.  The punishment is to be announced on July 11

Donald Trump found guilty of falsifying accounting documents. The punishment is to be announced on July 11Marcin Wrona/Fakty TVN

One of four criminal trials

In the event of such a close competition between the two candidates, it would be enough for a few thousand Republican voters in key states not to take part in the vote, and the scales of victory may tip towards the Democratic Party.

– I think all this may affect my voice. A convicted felon does not deserve to hold this office, says Allan Childs of Texas.

The New York trial is only the first of four criminal cases pending against the former president. Donald Trump emphasizes that the final verdict in his case will only be made at the ballot box. – It was a rigged trial, it's a disgrace. The real verdict will be delivered on November 5 by the people, and they know what happened here, said Donald Trump.

Shortly after the New York jury's decision, Donald Trump appealed to his supporters to financially support his presidential campaign. Donations from voters began to arrive at such a pace that they blocked the online collection site.

Facts about the World TVN24 BiS

Main photo source: PAP/EPA/JUSTIN LANE / POOL

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