The world seemed to accelerate, peeling the course towards a not very pleasant destination – this impression can be given by analyzing the media discourse from the last few dozen hours. It shows that the USA gets along with Russia – behind the back of Ukraine, also ignoring European allies.
The question comes to the fore: Will Ukraine survive without the support of Americans? In my opinion, this type of divagation is made exaggerated, but the universality of fears – that Donald Trump “takes toys” – remains a fact that is worth faceing.
Why exaggerated? Because for now nothing happened that would make you say that The United States give up Ukraine. Statement of the Secretary of Defense Pete'a Hegsetha – That Ukrainians will not regain lost lands and cannot count on NATO membership – although brutal, was based on a real assessment of the situation. Commonly known for several months.
After the defeat of the offensive at Zaporozhone, it is clear that throwing the Russians out of the occupied areas – on a larger scale – it task beyond the possibilities of the Ukrainian armed forces (ZSU). We also know that there is no universal consent in the alliance Ukrainian – a NATO is based on a collective decision -making mechanism. With Turkey, Slovakia and Hungary on board and without the obstruction of Trump Natowska Ukraine is a fantasy. And there are still formal and legal issues – the requirement of regulated borders.
Going further, let's take a look at the interview US Vice President JD Vance gave “The Wall Street Journal”. It shows directly that the states will impose on Russia Additional economic sanctions and will take military actions (including sending troops to the Dniepr) if Putin does not agree to the peace agreement. “We want Ukraine to be sovereign,” we read in WSJ.
It is mainly Europe that incurs costs
But well, let's recognize that it is soapy of the eyes, and that the Americans actually want to “trade” Ukraine, blackmailing it with a vision of cutting off all help. Would that be a problem? Yes, support from overseas in many areas is important – I wrote about it in another text for Interia, so I will stop at the conclusion. Often, it's not even about what comes from the states, but what Americans allow other countries to offer.
F -16 aircraft went to Ukraine from Europe – from Denmark and the Netherlands – The US has not handed over and they are not planning to transfer any machine yetbut the secondary distribution of weapons “Made in USA” also lies in the responsibility of Washington; This is the law. And it applies to many categories of equipment.
Nevertheless, the lack of America “on board” does not mean a sudden breakdown in Ukraine. Contrary to Trump's rhetoric, it is Europe – as a Union and individual countries – bears most of the costs of supporting Kiev (three fifth all existing expenditure). The continental community is able to finance the majority of Ukrainian war effort for a long time. You need EUR 80 billion a year (this is a holistic cost, Ukrainians put about 20 billion in the “basket” themselves). A lot and not much, taking into account the summary budget of the EU members and Great Britain.
Ukraine is probably missing “couple”
Of course, money is not shot, so this help would also have to have a material dimension. Which would require European industries more than before. For example, in the production of ammunition, which you do not need long months of preparation (in many European countries there is know -how, there is technology, there are free production capacity – there is no “political will). In combination with what Ukrainians have and may have thanks to their own treatments – and here especially in the last year a lot has changed in plus (drones, artillery and rocket ammunition) – An effective defense operation could still be conducted. Really long …
And yet all this narrative about the “awakened Russian bear”, its great possibilities and inexhaustible resources, is a drinking water. It could therefore turn out that Ukrainian determination, supported by European effort, Ultimately, she would finish Russia, its economy.
Except that in Ukraine alone there is probably no “couple” (understood as the universal will to fight, regardless of how bad we are). It seems that the game is playing over the Dnieper to keep as much as possible, survive until the weapon is suspendedwhich will bring universal relief.
“America Rejterada”? Or maybe not
Returning to United States. In the sea spilled from the day before yesterday, the facts are sinking. And these are such that for several weeks of delivery of American equipment to Ukraine has been in full swing, with an unprecedented intensity. And the range of weapons is really wide.
Something else is coming – “green light” for certain actions – What makes you cool your emotions. Let the thought that we do not watch the show entitled “America's Rejterada”, but rather a performance using a stick and carrot. Trump Mami Putin “sweetie” (about his genius, good will and the splendor of the Russian people), and in the deep facilities Ukrainian drones massacre the critical infrastructure of the federation, primarily refineries.
In January this year. Ukrainians hit Russian plants seven times. This month, five raids have already been reported, the last February 11. Trump, unlike Joe Biden, does not ask Kiev to suspend the attacks, What happened after the first phase of the Ukrainian “drone”, in the spring of last year.
The current US president (or one of his advisers) probably noticed the benefits of “extinguishing” the refinery. Russian problems did not cause global increases in processed oil prices, which Biden was afraid in the election year. Instead, Moscow forced to change the volume of exported goods – to replace gas with raw oil. The defects in “quickly” export profits were compensated, but what next?
And then there may be Vance's words about economic pressure. And Trump's announcement that he gets along with Arab oil tycoons, which will reduce oil prices. That is, ruining the Russian budget. Here's a stick – I just don't know if it's thick enough …