One big chaos. This is how the spectacular registrade (giving up risky activities – ed.) Of Donald Trump from the great pump of customs offensive against the whole world can be summarized so shortly. The “day of liberation” of America, which the miller's politician talked about, quickly goes into oblivion.
What's more, On the part of the American administration, it breaks the impression of communication and decision -making chaos. Some of the president's colleagues were surprised by his decision as hundreds of millions of Americans, part of them instinctively began to explain it as an outstanding and a planned strategy, and Donald Trump himself spreads his hands and with disarming honesty admits that “people got a little scared.” However, he quickly adds that the whole situation shows his “flexibility”.
While this flexibility is at least debatable, the history of the “day of liberation” flows for Americans and for the world valuable science, as well as several important conclusions. Here they are.
Donald Trump could not stand the pressure
First, pressure makes sense. There was a lot of pressure on Trump's administration last week.
The Americans went out into the streets protest against the upcoming product deficiencies and the price increases of goods and services. The increases that would hit the poorer part of society, i.e. to a large extent, Trump's electorate.
Wall Street “flowed red” for several consecutive days, and the decreases in the value of key indexes and companies exceeded even those from the times of Coronavirus pandemic. What's more, she lost the “wonderful seven”, or American technological giants from the Silicon Valley – a pearl in the crown of the American economy and the business -political facilities of the incumbent president.
American and world economists calculated that Donald Trump pushed the United States on the recession, and in the best case of serious economic stagnation. Increased inflation is estimated at 2-2.5 percentage points – from about 3 percent present up to over 5 percent Adding to this a drastic increase in the costs of citizens' lives and powerful losses of key American companies, this gave a very dubious business card of the president, who introduced himself to the Americans as a great specialist from the economy.
The world did not be terrified of Trump's customs offensive at all and did not pay him the next day tribute. Of course, there were countries who wanted and still want to communicate with the Americans, but the greatest players – especially the European Union and China – said very clearly: we will answer your duties with all their power and we will fight to the end.
Losing clash with globalization
PO Drugie, Nobody will win with globalization. Donald Trump took such a duel and lost it after a week. Because withdrawal with an customs offensive economic and commercial changes from the last half-century was one of the goals of its administration. Production, although unprofitable due to labor costs, was to return to the United States, and herself America wanted to live in isolation from market realities.
Donald Trump believed that the complicated process that has been going on for decades could be turned back or at least correct one, a simple decision. Now he knows that you can't. At least not without paying the price, which he apparently does not want to pay.
China, or enemy number one
Third, China is the enemy of America today. They pose a strategic threat to her and the greatest geopolitical challenge. Even by retreating from his customs offensive, Donald Trump shows it very clearly. After all Only in the Middle Kingdom did not suspend his last week's decision for 90 days (and also a few more of the last days). Not only that, more and more new tranches of customs duties on both sides are introduced almost tape, and the voltage on the Washington-Pekin line achieves levels unknown in recent years.
For now, this is mainly economic voltage, but in the background of the competition for the name of the player number one on the planet there are also military (Taiwan) or geopolitical (vision of the world order: Americancentric or dispersed).
Even America needs friends
Fourth, you can't fight the whole world at once. And even being the biggest power on the planet. Donald Trump just found out. From the beginning of his second term of office, the American president is doing everything to discourage their previous allies and friends to the United States. However, the termination of the trade war to nearly 60 countries was an unprecedented event. The American president hoped that the countries terrified by the specter of confrontation with the United States would quickly pay his tribute to him. He recalculated.
The imposition of mutual duties only intensified the resistance of foreign partners, who realized that the resignation would now subordinate them to America (and the will of Trump) for years. While their opposition did not surprise Trump, his scale and definitely – yes.
Washington could try to break the spines to the next countries and the disproportion of forces probably in most cases would be a success. The thing is that Supervotry is not a superpower if it stands alone. Power should attract others, not push them away. Meanwhile, Trump's subsequent activities on the international arena – conflicts with Mexico, Canada, Denmark, the European Union, undermining NATO's sensibility or recently customs offensive – they are doing a lot to make America (at least under his rule) to become a lonely giant.
Customs suspended, but credibility will not come back
Fifthly, perhaps the decision on the mutual duties imposed all over the world was suspended for 90 days, but the political and image effects that caused its introduction, the White House can no longer hang. And these are brutal for the United States. In the eyes of the world, America appears after a “customs operation” as a partly unpredictable partner, and thus dangerous. The partner who says one day and swears that this is an inviolable strategy, and on the second day changes his mind and pretends that nothing happened.
It is impossible to plan with such a partner long -term. It is impossible to trust him and rely on him. Such a partner does not give a sense of security, and even receives such a feeling. Unofficially, Trump's surroundings are proud that the president's unpredictability and the tendency to make extreme decisions are his great advantages. America's partners see it a little differently.
This is of great importance, because America needs allies to protect and pursue their interests. Especially those related to Southeast Asia and confrontation with China. Lonely America would be difficult to defeat China – whether economically or even more military. For America conflicted with the rest of the world, especially with the European Union, it would be almost impossible. Trump probably just understood that.