Donald Trump wants to annex Canada. What game does the president of the United States play?

Full escalation. This is the term that best describes the last days before the return Donald Trump do White House after a four-year break. The American president-elect does not waste time and surprises public opinion with new demands, plans and grievances at virtually every opportunity.

Only in the last few days he has already managed to inform about plans to take over the Panama Canal and submit Denmark offer to buy Greenland (and also warn that otherwise he will impose heavy tariffs on Denmark or even go as far as to take over the island by force). The billionaire politician is next on the list You havewhich, in Trump's opinion, is ideally suited to be the 51st American state.

In the case of the Maple Leaf Country, the president-elect was slightly more merciful than towards Greenland and Panamabecause he ruled out the use of military force. He only announced that he would limit himself to “economic power”.

“No one can say why we subsidize Canada with over $100,000,000 a year? It doesn't make sense! Many Canadians want Canada to become the 51st state. They would save a lot on taxes and military protection. I think it's a great idea. 51 .state!!!” – Trump wrote on his social networking site Truth Social.

Since then, he has repeated the theses contained in the cited entry several times in various forms. He delivered the last portion of them after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to resign, which the politician announced on January 6.

Donald Trump's new “annexation” strategy has stunned even those who are accustomed to the conservative politician's constant controversy. But are these just “rude jokes”, as Mark Carney, former governor of the Central Bank of Canada, described the president-elect's statements, or is there something more behind it?

When you don't know what's going on, it's usually about money. Even more so in the case of Trump, who promised his countrymen during the election campaign that “America will be great again.” Especially economically. He eagerly named the next countries that he would impose huge tariffs on and assured that he would even out the trade balance United States with further partners.

In the case of Canada, the United States is indeed “under the radar.” This is shown by numerous official data – including: Census Bureau, the American equivalent Central Statistical Office. The thing is that in 2024 it was neither the 100 nor 200 billion dollars per year that Trump talks about, but “only” 55 billion until November inclusive (if December data is added, the number will probably increase to around 60 billion dollars). In available Census Bureau data, America has never had a trade deficit with Canada even close to $100 billion.

The irony is that the United States is losing trade with Canada as a result of the USMCA agreement negotiated by Trump in 2017-18. (United States-Mexico-Canada), which entered into force on July 1, 2020 and replaced the previously applicable North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

– Trump has already signaled that he would like to renegotiate the USMCA agreement with Canada Mexico so as to minimize the economic losses of the United States towards Canada – says Mateusz Piotrowski, an analyst for American politics from the Polish Institute of International Affairs, in an interview with Interia (PISM). – Trump sees that he could gain more benefits for the United States by breaking the current trilateral agreement into two bilateral agreements, one with Canada and one with Mexico. – he adds.

According to our interlocutor, the “proposal” of making Canada the 51st American state is part of Trump's negotiating game. – It's a strategy of portraying yourself as a tough negotiatorwho makes the first offer something that the other party did not expect even in the worst-case scenario, and only from there it begins to actually lower its expectations and proposals – Piotrowski specifies. And he emphasizes: – This is a shock strategy in negotiations. It's hard to rationalize this.

– Trump and his entourage choose different methods, but the general goal is common, i.e. strengthening the position of the United States on the international arena and implementing the Trumpist slogan “America first” by reducing the costs of operating the state and trade deficits – adds prof. Tomasz Płudowski. – In each of these cases – Canada, Greenland, Panama – we are dealing with similar elements, i.e. tariffs, trade routes, natural resources – says an Americanist from the Academy of Economics and Humanities Warsaw.

The second element that Trump is at stake is sealing and securing the northern border of the United States. In the campaign, the Republican candidate devoted much less space to it than to the border with Mexico, which has changed in all cases. This does not mean, however, that it is not important for Trump in implementing his promise of tight and secure American borders.

– The border issue must be addressed due to election promises, but it is also a real problem for the United States that they cannot ignore. – diagnoses Mateusz Piotrowski from PISM. He emphasizes that the importance of the problem can be seen in the legislative activities of the American Congress, which does not intend to postpone the problem until “never”. – They want to show that this is goal number one, and a solution to this problem will be found very quickly – explains Interia's interlocutor.

While in the case of Mexico, Trump has repeatedly threatened migrants who are allegedly stealing jobs from Americans and letting terrorists into the United States, in the case of the border with Canada, the problem is of a completely different nature. – Illegal immigrants are less of a problem there, drug smuggling is a bigger problem. Here, the percentage scale increases significantly, largely due to the free movement of people across the northern border – Piotrowski tells Interia. – America wants Canada to increase its efforts to protect the northern border and relieve the burden on the United States, because the Americans' main challenge is on the southern border, but also on the seas – both in the north and in the south – he analyzes.

The point is that politics is not a game without consequences. For Donald Trump, the only thing that matters is the goal, i.e. a “good deal”, but for the United States' partners the path to this goal is also important. Because it is during it that mutual trust, shared values, a sense of security and predictability are built.

– These are methods taken from the world of ruthless negotiations, for which Trump and his TV show were famous. This is the same way Trump ran his campaigns. Voters didn't care, so it emboldened Trump and Musk after their election victory – says prof. Tomasz Płudowski. The Americanist explains what exactly he means: – It's about intimidation. In the case of Panama and Greenland, the use of American troops is not ruled out. In the case of Canada, ridiculing, humiliating and kicking someone lying down in order to weaken the opponent.

According to prof. Płudowski, “the times of mud fighting are coming” in international politics, especially by the United States. As an example, our interlocutor gives the entry of Elon Musk, one of Trump's closest people, addressed to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “Little girl, you're not a guber anymorenatorem of Canada, so it doesn't matter what you say,” the world's richest man said on Twitter in response to Trudeau's entry, in which the Canadian politician ruled out merging his country with the United States.

– What we will see soon will be a great challenge for good taste in Poland Europein Canada, in the world. Unfortunately, such methods turned out to be effective, so it emboldened Trump and Musk. They have already dropped their gloves and are going to fight in the mud with everyone – predicts prof. Płudowski. Mateusz Piotrowski, in turn, believes that openly talking about the annexation of subsequent countries is crossing a previously unimaginable line. – This is not how you treat even enemy countries, let alone allies, and NATO allies at that. This is absurd – says the PISM analyst.

Will the next four years be marked by calculated torment of the weaker by the world's greatest superpowers? Our interlocutors see light at the end of the tunnel.

– Trump positions himself, although in a very strange way, as a leader who cannot be trifled with because he is absolutely unpredictable. Absolutely anything can happen in American foreign policy. At least that's what Trump suggests. Therefore, you cannot test the United States, its policies and its obligations – Mateusz Piotrowski from PISM tells Interia.

Prof. Tomasz Płudowski adds: – After such behavior as in the case of Denmark or Canada, other countries – China, Russia, Brazil, Indie, Iran Whether North Korea – they will take the United States more seriously under Trump's presidency. A president who has Musk behind him, but also projects the image of a ruthless leader who is ready for anything.