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Donald Trump's inauguration. Are the golden times of conspiracy theories coming?

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80 percent young people in the USA are inclined to believe in some conspiracy theories. This tendency is greater the more they use social media and the less they trust the news media. In Poland, over 60 percent young adults share conspiracy beliefs regarding Ukrainians. Also in Great Britain, 60 percent believes in at least one of these theories.

One of the key questions of the presidency that is just beginning Donald Trump concerns disinformation and conspiracy theories on an unprecedented scale throughout the world, including in… Poland. There are serious reasons to assume that in this respect it was already good.

Why? To answer this question, we need to look for the reasons for the popularity of conspiracy theories, which is growing rapidly. The first and basic is undoubtedly the fact that we function in information societiesin which almost all citizens are immersed in digital media. The information and digital environment is so closely related to social and political life that talking about functioning online and offline has long become obsolete.

The new disease of our times

So it's high time we talked about something like that information diseasesor more precisely: about everyone negative consequences of too much information of questionable value or simply false.

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Disinformation, i.e. intentional activities based on lies and their mass spread, is one of the flagship pathologies of life in the electronic republic. In itself, it can also be a means for a slightly deeper phenomenon, which is what they are conspiracy theories.

What sets them apart is the building a vision of the socio-political order based on the belief in the secret collusion of elitesthat conduct criminal activities directed against society in order to keep people under constant control.

Karen Douglas, a social psychologist and researcher of conspiracy theories, argues that there are three main reasons why a large part of society is inclined to believe in them. The first reason is the need to have knowledge enabling a clear and transparent understanding of an increasingly complex reality. Conspiracy theories provide simple answers to difficult questions. Experiencing constant emotional swings and being bombarded with a constant stream of information, we need to better understand what it really is like. We then tend to connect the dots and put together what we know, even if it sounds like fantasy.

The second reason is more existential, related to the need to feel safe and empowered. Therefore, severe anxiety promotes vulnerability.

The third one is the need to belong to a social group and the belief in the need to be unique. Conspiracy theories are an umbrella that ensures the implementation of all the above-mentioned aspirations.

In one of his books, Michał Bilewicz describes a model of conspiratorial thinking, which consists of individual factors (fear, age, paranoia, authoritarianism, constant belief in being a victim, narcissism, cognitive closedness) and situational factors (crises, uncertainty, control deficit). These create dense conspiracy theories that fuel political mobilization, leading to prejudice, discrimination and violence.

Trump is the hope of conspirators

Global networking has resulted in an unprecedented diffusion of such narratives and the creation of large social movements around them. One of such international and extremely influential movements, meeting all the characteristics of a sect, numbering tens of thousands of followers, he supported Donald Trump in the previous term.

He was part of the alternative right camp. He became the driving force behind the attack on the Capitolwhich resulted in the death of five people. 140 policemen were injured. Previously, at least several times, people under the influence of this sect that emerged in the digital environment turned out to be criminals planning or carrying out attacks on places and people they considered enemies.

It's about QAnonwhich was recognized in 2019 was considered an anti-government and extremist movement that poses a threat to society. It was a QAnon member who broke into a house in 2022 Nancy PelosiSpeaker of the House of Representatives, and in her absence attacked her husband with a hammer, who, severely wounded, survived the attack. The perpetrator admitted that he wanted to kill the politician – according to him, one of the leaders of the corrupt system of the Washington administration.

QAnon claimed its mission was to protect children from the international cabalistic sectwhich he heads Hillary Clinton and other politicians associated with Democratic Party in the USA and democratic forces in other Anglo-Saxon countries. These elites allegedly stole children, detained them, sexually abused them and killed them. This is, of course, one of the key, but not the only, elements of the vision proclaimed by its members.

The origins of QAnon go back to much earlier years and the communities around the websites 4chan and 8chan, gathering activists later known as Anonymous, freaks, as well as criminals, including – paradoxically – distributing materials showing child abuse, incels waging a cybernetic war against women and organizing mass hate attacks on journalists working for major titles, e.g. The Guardian, and politicians.

The aim of attacks has always been to destroy reputations. These groups evolved towards the mentioned vision of the world. Trump became their salvation from the depraved elites. They were the audience for dozens of presidential rallies and conventions Republican Partycausing consternation among some politicians of this party. However, they were also guests of the social media summit organized by White Houseand Trump himself publicly expressed gratitude to them, emphasizing that he would “willingly go all out” in the mission to save the world.

Belief in conspiracies and a crisis of trust

Conspiratorial thinking is more common than many realize. We know from the analyzes of British psychologists that 60 percent The British believe in at least one such theory. The age group is most exposed to such content and most susceptible to disinformation youth.

In 2024, the American organization News Literacy Project published a report showing that 80 percent teenagers encounter posts promoting such theories on social media. 20 percent sees them every day, and 31 percent once a week. At the same time, 81 percent admits that they believe in one or more of them. Importantly, people with a low level of trust in the media and information are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories than those who trust media institutions more.

Unfortunately, the ground for a conspiratorial way of thinking in Poland is solid. Franciszek Czech and PaweÅ‚ Åšcigaj from the Jagiellonian University examined the tendencies of Poles after the invasion Russia already Ukraine among adult Poles. Almost half agree with the statement that Poles are “becoming second-class citizens” and Ukrainians are privileged. 41.1 percent recognizes that “Corona virus pandemic and the war in Ukraine serve to divert attention.

The group has the greatest support for conspiracy theories related to the war in Ukraine young adults (18-24 years), where it even exceeds 60 percent. We also find in it the belief that television materials and photos from the war showing civilians dying on the front are manipulation.

Generalized trust is at a dramatically low level. About 80 percent of us do not trust or have a far-reaching distance from others. We also don't trust institutions. In its research from 2023, the Demagogue Association emphasizes that trust in the media is falling in Poland. This clear tendency has been visible at least since 2015, when 56% of people expressed trust in the news media. subjects. In the last measurement it was only 42%..

A new chapter

All this shows how the current form of development of digital platforms has created a solid and difficult to break ground of thinking based on conspiracy, hostility towards those who think differently, looking for scapegoats and resorting to violence and crimes. There are plenty of reasons to believe that things were already going well.

It stands out a strong alliance of the owners of the largest platforms with the incoming president, Donald Trump. Its main representative is, of course Elon Muskowner of the X platform, chief advisor and sponsor of the current US president. He was the one who used AI (artificial intelligence) tools attacking his rival during the election campaign KamalÄ™ Harrisclearly supported the extreme and anti-EU right wing with extremist tendencies in Germany Whether Great Britainby conducting massive advocacy campaigns, hundreds of posts on X, and amplifying the voice of these political forces on their own platform.

There is no precedent for a massive attack on the British Labor government and Prime Minister Keira Starmer. Musk devotes a huge number of posts to him, accusing him and his party of covering up a network of child abuse criminals and other activities to the detriment of the British peoplealso calling for a change in migration policy. In his attacks, he also uses selectively selected statistics, often questionable quality sources of information, and – unfortunately – strongly promotes the anonymous Visegrad24 channel, which has long been recognized by many experts as tool of disinformation in the hands of extreme groups of the alternative right. This channel also became famous in Poland for many campaigns directed against minorities and the democratic opposition.

Collage: Aleksandra WÅ‚odarczyk, source photos: Win McNamee/Getty Images (Donald Trump), 123rf/INTERIA.PL

Taken in recent days by belonging to Mark Zuckerberg Meta – owner of Facebook – decision about giving up an important mechanism to fight disinformation fact-checkingu – was considered a tribute to the new president. This decision was immediately publicly praised by Musk.

It is difficult to imagine that in the next four years the owners and managers of digital platforms will be questioned in Congress for supporting radicalization and using mechanisms that are addictive, disinformative and polarize society. The difference is also that while in the previous term, conspiracy theories were created by circles of the political fringe, and their spread on social media was at least questionable, now the actions of Musk, Meta, the closest circle of the US president surrounded by anti-vaxxers they legitimize such practices in the eyes of public opinion.

The ground for them has been hardened in Poland for years, as evidenced by the research mentioned above. They are strongly connected with authoritarian tendencies. In the research report of which I am a co-author, on a representative group of Polish women and men entitled “Faces of Polish radicalization” (2023), we state that 1/3 of people with higher and secondary education share authoritarian beliefsdenying other views the right to exist in public debate, dehumanizing those who think differently and not recognizing dialogue as a method of action.

For our cultural circle, phenomena happening overseas have always meant a wave that will eventually come to us. Today, everything that happens in the digital environment does not require any waves. It happens “here and now” with minimal delay. And everywhere. Therefore, the scale of the influence of conspiratorial thinking and the propagation of false theories using disinformation as an “effective” means of action may only increase in the coming years. Even more so there are no effective regulations on the horizonnor adequate educational activities for all social groups that could limit this impact.

Jarubas in “Guest of Events”: Without us, there would be no majority/Polsat News/Polsat News



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