Eggs. “Very clear and noticeable” price increases are coming

Analysts from the Chamber note that a similar situation occurred in 2022. Then, within three months, wholesale egg prices jumped by 75%. – The population of commercial laying hens estimated by hatching chicks is insufficient in relation to market needs. We therefore expect that egg prices achieved by producers will go up in the fall. The increases should not be as spectacular as two years ago, but they will be very clear and noticeable – noted the director of the National Chamber of Poultry and Feed Producers Katarzyna Gawrońska.

According to the Chamber's data, chick production is the lowest in eight years this year. Depending on the year, from the beginning of the year to the end of July, from 21 to over 25 million young hens appear on the market. Meanwhile, this season there were only slightly over 19 million. According to Gawrońska, producers were afraid to invest more boldly.

– This resulted from the instability of regulations and many new restrictions related to production, as well as concerns about unforeseen events such as increased import or bird flu – she explained. She added that the transformation of the industry towards alternative breeding, i.e. gradual abandonment of cages, is also of great importance. In the opinion of the Chamber, the increase in wholesale prices will translate into prices in retail trade, which means that it will be more expensive for consumers. Currently, the average purchase prices of eggs in retail trade (according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture) are: cage eggs PLN 57.49/100 pcs. (class L), PLN 43.94/100 pcs. (class M); barn eggs – PLN 64.71 (L), PLN 54.70 (M); free-range eggs – PLN 75.61 (L), PLN 69.60 (M); organic eggs – PLN 94.97 (M). Retail prices vary, but are much higher than wholesale prices. Credit Bank analysts note that egg purchase prices in the EU have remained at an elevated level in recent quarters. This is due to the still limited supply of eggs on the EU market, despite the continued high profitability of their production. “In our opinion, this is largely the result of the transformation of the egg production sector among some of the major EU egg producers, especially in Germany, consisting in replacing cage farming with non-cage farming,” we read in the latest AGROmapa bulletin. “For this reason, we maintain our assessment that the scope for a strong decline in egg purchase prices in the coming quarters is limited,” it added.

In the first 6 months of this year, Poland exported 116.5 thousand tons worth EUR 225.5 million. “In the period January-June 2024, the value of Polish egg exports decreased by 19.6 percent year-on-year compared to an increase of 63.3 percent in the same period of 2023, which was primarily the result of lower prices obtained by exporters,” note Credit Bank analysts. The bank's experts also point to a deterioration in the profitability of egg production in July this year, measured by the ratio of their purchase price to the price of feed. “Taking into account the prospects for the situation on the EU and domestic egg markets, we forecast that the purchase price of class M eggs at the end of 2024 will be approx. PLN 48/100 pieces and approx. PLN 52/100 pieces at the end of 2025.” – Credit Bank analysts inform, adding that “the main risk factors for poultry and egg price forecasts are the course of bird flu in the next season in Europe, as well as the pace of supply growth among the largest producers of poultry meat and eggs”.