The latest projections of the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate that the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean continues to strengthen. The probability of its persistence in the winter months already reaches 95 percent.
According to the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on Thursday, there is a 95 percent chance that the El Niño phenomenon will persist in the Pacific also in the winter season. According to meteorologists, it will shape the weather conditions in the season from December 2023 to February 2024.
What is El Niño?
El Niño occurs when the water surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is above average. The trade winds – gusts of wind that bring out cool deep sea water – are starting to weaken. When the Pacific Ocean is warmer, North and South America are at greater risk of heavy rainfall and severe hurricanes, and parts of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia are at greater risk of severe drought. The phenomenon is already exacerbating natural disasters around the world.
The CPC predicted in July that the chance of an El Niño persisting into the winter season was as high as 90 percent. The forecast has now been updated.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned in May that the phenomenon would cause global temperatures to rise even more.
“El Niño continued in July, as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean,” it said. As added, in the light of recent climatic events, El Niño is likely to strengthen in the season from November to January and it is possible that it will raise the average temperature by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius several times.
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