Germany will probably need a three-party agreement to form a majority government. According to exit polls, there are three coalition scenarios. One of them assumes that the leaders in the polls with a minimal majority of the Social Democrats from the SPD will not form a new government in Berlin.
“It will be a long election evening,” said Paul Ziemak, CDU general secretary in an interview with the German public television ARD, shortly after the announcement of the first exit poll. He reported that he “anticipated discussions” about the so-called Jamaican coalitionwhich would include: the CDU / CSU Christian Democratic coalition, the liberal FDP and the Greens. – In the CDU, the rule is country first, and then the party – explained Ziemak.
– We will do everything we can to form a federal government led by the CDU / CSU unionbecause it is a coalition of the future for Germany, declared the CDU / CSU candidate for Chancellor Armin Laschet on the election evening.
These words were uttered after the above-mentioned survey results were announced exit poll. According to them, the two largest parties – the SPD and the CDU / CSU – obtained about 25 percent of the vote each, with a minimal advantage of the Social Democrats.
The “Jamaican Coalition” (from the colors associated with the green – Greens, yellow – FDP and black – CDU / CSU) in the Bundestag would mean that a representative of the CDU / CSU would appear at the head of the government again – most likely. This option is not new. It appeared in 2005, but then politicians from the FDP finally expressed their reluctance to form a government with the Greens. The idea returned in 2017, but even then the coalition talks collapsed.
This format of the coalition was supported by Wolfgang Kubicki, the deputy head of the FDP, in the first talks following the exit poll results. On the air of ARD television he assured: – We want to co-govern, we are prepared for talks.
He said that the “preferred coalition” is the one with the CDU / CSU and the Greens, but in his opinion other scenarios are possible.
SPD coalition with the Liberals and the Greens
Another scenario for a possible government coalition is the so-called signaling (or traffic light) coalition, that is, governments SPD (red), Green (green) and FDP (yellow). This option has never ruled at the highest level in federal Germany.
Katrin Goering-Eckard, the head of the Green faction in parliament, when asked by ARD journalists about possible coalitions, replied that she did not want to speculate on the subject.
A grand coalition
Is the so-called as well grand coalition? If the two highest-ranked parties – the SPD and the CDU / CSU – get along with each other, it is a scenario that, with such a similar election result, may result in too big problems with the division of positions, and even with the chancellor’s position itself.
How many votes in the Bundestag?
According to the updated exit poll results published by the ARD at 21.10, the SPD would have 204 MPs in the Bundestag, CDU / CSU – 197, Greens – 114, FDP – 91.
The Jamaican coalition could count on 403 votes, the signaling coalition on 415, and the grand coalition on 401. According to these forecasts, the Bundestag would have 730 deputies in the new term of office, and the majority government would have to have 366 votes of support.
In the unanimous opinion of experts, none of the parties mentioned would like to form a coalition with the extreme left from Die Linke, which is on the verge of joining the Bundestag (5 percent support is projected), or with the extreme right (AFD gained around 10-11 percent of the vote).
Deutsche Welle, ARD, tvn24.pl
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