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Electricity and gas prices from July 1, 2024. Calculations

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Horror stories depicting dramatic increases in electricity and gas prices dominated social media. Experts remind, however, that these forecasts are calculated as if subsequent protective mechanisms were not to come into force. And they come in. Interestingly, some consumers may pay less for electricity.

The regulations adopted at the end of 2023 extended the validity of frozen electricity and gas prices until the end of June 2024. Due to their expiry, modified protective solutions were introduced.

From July 1, 2024, electricity prices will remain frozen, but on different terms than before. They are regulated by the Energy Voucher Act.

– In the case of electricity bills, we already have clarity – says Łukasz Czekała, president of Optimal Energy, owner of the energy price comparison website optimalenergy.pl. – From July 1, 2024, the electricity (active) rate will be frozen at 500 PLN/MWh. Until now, the applicable rate was PLN 412/MWh, he explains.

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New electricity rates from July 1, 2024

The total amount of the electricity bill includes the costs of its purchase and distribution. The protective shield, valid until June 30 this year, froze both parts of the bill. However, only up to a certain level of energy consumption, i.e. the so-called limit for the whole year. In the first half of 2024, it was 1.5 thousand. kWh for a household. In 2023, there was a limit of 2,000. kWh, then increased from October 1 to December 31, 2023 to 3 thousand. kWh. When the limit was exceeded, the recipient paid a higher rate. Instead of PLN 412/MWh, it was PLN 693/MWh.

The current solution only provides for freezing the energy price. Therefore, from July 1, our accounts will fully include distribution fees according to the rates approved by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office for 2024. At the same time, electricity consumption limits will no longer apply.

– People who were within the limits have not had to face higher amounts in distribution fees so far. Because these were frozen at the 2022 level. Therefore, after July 1 this year, they will face a large increase in these fees, around 40 percent – explains Łukasz Czekała.

He adds that distribution fees make up about 45 percent of the total bill. However, as he emphasizes, the abolition of the capacity fee will reduce them. In 2024, it ranges from PLN 2.66 to PLN 14.90 net per month, depending on the level of consumption. Power fee in accordance with the Energy Voucher Act, it will not be collected from July to December 2024.

According to Łukasz Czekała's calculations, a household consuming 2,000 per year. kWh, from July he will pay a bill of PLN 196.30. Its amount consists of the distribution cost of 1 kWh in the amount of PLN 0.5628 and the sale cost of 1 kWh in the amount of PLN 0.6150. A total of 1 kWh will cost PLN 1.1778 from July 1. From January 1, 2024 to the end of June, the household pays PLN 153.49 per month if it does not exceed the limit of PLN 1.5 thousand during that time. kWh. So his the bill will increase by PLN 43.78 from July 2024.

Electricity prices from July 1, 2024.jpgtvn24.pl

Some people will pay lower bills

Łukasz Czekała explains that in a situation where we have not been within the limits provided for in the Act on Electricity Prices, the rate for 1 kWh will be reduced by 18.5%. For example, heat pump users who paid the first 3,000 kWh at frozen rates and the next 7,000 kWh at higher rates they will gain PLN 1,820 in a year.

– The rate per kWh of energy consumed above the limit has so far amounted to PLN 1.44. From July 1, it will be PLN 1.18. It is difficult to use amounts here, but if, for example, we used more than the limit of 1,000 kWh, we gain PLN 260. And so proportionally for every 1,000 kWh – the expert calculates.

He explains that heating a house with an area of ​​150 square meters generates an average electricity consumption of PLN 10,000. kWh. – Consumption depends on the type of heat pump, its efficiency and, of course, the set temperature – explains Czekała.

“A PLN 30 increase” and “horror receipts”

Previous calculations by the Ministry of Climate and Environment showed that the monthly electricity bill for a household would not increase by more than PLN 30 per month, which was publicly stated many times by the head of the ministry, Paulina Hennig-Kloska.

– This amount of PLN 30 is not detached from reality. However, it was not precisely explained. Our calculations show that in the case of an annual electricity life of up to approximately 1.5 thousand kWh, the bill will increase by a maximum of PLN 30. However, if someone uses more electricity, for example because they have a boiler to heat water and consume 2.5-3 thousand. kWh per year, then he will pay proportionally more – explains Łukasz Czekała. The electricity consumption limit for households in 2024 was 1.5 thousand. kWh.

In turn, Bartłomiej Derski from WysokieNapiecie informs that people who have already received invoices for July and subsequent months will receive their corrections. The second option is compensation included in the settlement of subsequent months.

– Households received forecasts as if no law on freezing prices would apply anymore electricity – explains Bartłomiej Derski – Energy companies operated on the basis of applicable regulations, so they sent forecasts as if electricity prices were to increase significantly, to 70 groszy net per kilowatt hour. And in fact they will increase to 50 groszy net. So the increase in the cost of electricity itself will be PLN 10 per kWh, not PLN 30 per kWh – he adds.

It also reminds that some users will receive an energy voucher which, depending on the number of people in the household, will reduce their electricity bills by an amount ranging from PLN 300 to even PLN 1,200 per year.

Read also: “The current will finish us off.” What's next for energy bills?

The year 2025 is in doubt

Electricity rates for the second half of this year are clear. However, the big unknown are the prices that will apply from January 1, 2025. The freezing is planned only until the end of this year.

– This or next week we will find out how much we will pay for electricity in 2025 if the government decides not to extend the shield that is currently coming into force – says Łukasz Czekała.

He adds that sellers submitted applications to the Energy Regulatory Office for approval of tariffs from July 1 this year, but currently they will be important mainly for them, because on the basis of it they will receive compensation resulting from the difference between the rate approved by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office and the frozen price of PLN 500 per MWh.

– However, these rates will come into force for customers from January 1, 2025 – explains the expert.

In turn, Bartłomiej Derski predicts that these rates will most likely be approved at the level of PLN 0.60 – PLN 0.65 net, which will mean that together with the cost of distribution and VAT from On January 1, 2025, we will pay PLN 1.30 per kWh.

– The rates will be approved by the Energy Regulatory Office for the first time for up to 18 months. This is to balance this year's prices with those that will enter into force on January 1 of the new year, after prices are unfreezed – explains Derski. He adds that energy companies can contract energy cheaper for next year. However, the tariff is to be averaged. – Prices will not drop next year as much as they could, but this year the increase in bills will be lower – says the expert from WysokieNapiecie.

What about gas bills from July 1?

Łukasz Czekała says that forecasting gas bills is currently a bit more difficult. – As of today, we know the price valid until the end of June this year, i.e. PLN 200.17 per MWh, and PLN 0.20017 per kWh. How much we will pay from July 1 depends on the level of the tariff at PGNiG. However, this information has not been provided yet, explains the expert.

He adds that in the case of gas, 80 percent the bill is a fuel fee. – In the case of gas, the bill structure is much simpler than electricity, because it consists of two fixed and two variable fees. However, without a key value (gas prices in the tariff – editor), it is difficult to calculate how much the bills will increase.

– In my opinion, we can expect an increase of 10-20 percent. Then we would pay about PLN 220-240 per MWh – predicts Łukasz Czekała. He adds that other fees will also change, but their share in the bill is approximately 20%. the entire bill. – So even if these fees increase by 50 percent, it will translate into a 5-10 percent increase in the gas bill – sums up the expert.

In the case of gas, the Energy Voucher Act eliminates, as of July 1, the price freeze for tariffed customers at PLN 200.17 per MWh, and introduces a maximum price equal to the tariff of the largest retailer – PGNiG Obrót Detaliczny.

Author:Paulina Karpińska

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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