Era Nawrocki. “We are waiting for fun in a kitty and a mouse”

National Electoral Commission She announced the official results of the second round of presidential elections on Monday morning. The winner was Karol Nawrockicandidate supported by Law and Justicewhich obtained 50.89 percent votes. Rafał TrzaskowskiCivic Coalition candidate, supported by 49.11 percent voters. The attendance amounted to 71.63 percent

Karol Nawrocki's victory in the presidential election raises questions about the future of the Polish economy. Although there was no powerful collapse in the markets, experts warn against possible tensions between the Presidential Palace and the government that can affect investments, zloty course And the reform pace.

The decreases in the WIG20 index at the beginning of the Monday session reached almost 3 percent. At the closure, most of the losses were made up – the index reduced by 0.6 percent. Despite the uncertainty in the first hours of trade, the golden in the afternoon even temporarily began to slightly gain value.

Piotr Kuczyński, a financial analyst, in an interview with tvn24.pl emphasizes that financial markets clearly preferred another candidate. – If Rafał Trzaskowski became president, we would most likely observe a clear strengthening of the zloty and strong increases on the stock exchange – he says.

At the same time, he points out that the choice of Karol Nawrocki does not mean any disaster. – The reaction on the currency market was moderate, even symbolic – he assesses. He indicates that the declines on the Warsaw Stock Exchange were partly the result of global trade tensions, not just the result of the election. – In the case of securities exchange Donald Trump regarding raising duties to steel and aluminum from 25 to 50 percent – he explains.

Also Michał Stajniak, deputy director of the XTB analysis department, in an interview with tvn24.pl estimates that the election of Karol Nawrocki as president met with a moderately negative market reaction. – Rafał Trzaskowski was considered a pro -proorous candidate, and the final win of Nawrocki is perceived by investors as an increased political risk – he says.

Like Kuczyński, the expert emphasizes that the zloty will react not only to national political events. – In a short and longer date, the zloty will also react to the global situation and perspectives interest rates in Poland – he points out. – The return of EUR/PLN above the level 4.30 cannot be ruled out, but the return above 4.40 would require an open conflict between Poland and the EU, which should not take place at least at this point – he concludes.

Anna Gołębicka from the Center Adam Smith in an interview with tvn24.pl indicates that the result of voting heralds a period of political impasse. – We are waiting for fun in a kitty and a mouse. Whatever the coalition does, will be blocked by the new president. In legislation, we can expect full obstruction – he assesses.

And the agenda currently has several projects relevant from the point of view of the economy, including the return of the Act providing for a reduction in the health contribution for entrepreneurs. It was one of the key election promises of the Civic Coalition and Poland 2050. The Act was recently vetoed by the president Andrzej Duda. Reforming in the judiciary is also in question. Progress in this area is carefully observed by the European Commission.

According to the deputy director of the XTB Analysis Department, Michał Stajniak's biggest threat to markets would be a political breakdown. – Currently, the worst scenario for Polish zloty and Polish actions is a vote of no confidence for the government and early elections – warns. – This situation will not only lead to political confusion, but also can lead to the takeover of power by the right, which can be received negatively by the market – he adds.

– Another negative scenario is the escalation of the EU conflict, which would like to see the progress of work on judicial reforms in Poland. If the judiciary in Poland could not be reformed, this could stop further payments for Poland from KPO, which could ultimately lead to a few percent weakening of the zloty in the next few months – he says.

Lack of funds from KPO may also have serious economic consequences. – It can inhibit economic growth in Poland through a fewer public investments, which may also suspend the private sector from investments – says Stajniak.

In turn, according to Piotr Kuczyński, political tensions can only get worse in the second half of the year. – I expect that until August nothing will happen politically groundbreaking. Andrzej Duda will still be the president, and the government coalition will remain unchanged. What will happen after August will just turn out – he points out.

– It is only in August that Karol Nawrocki will officially take the office of the president. Then we will see if he will strive to confront the government – trying to weaken it, change the coalition system, lead to earlier choices – whether he will decide on another strategy. Personally, I assume that it will be sharp, but this is only my guess – he adds.

Kuczyński warns that markets will only react to real economic threats. – If the president's actions begin to realistically threaten the economy – I emphasize: the economy, not ideological issues or the judiciary – then we can expect a negative reaction of the markets. But only then – he says.

Karol Nawrocki made a number of generous fiscal promises in the election campaign. He announced, among others Introduction of zero PIT for families and a reduction in the VAT rate. According to the analysis of Colliers, the implementation of these declarations may cost the state budget over PLN 50 billion per year – with a planned deficit of PLN 289 billion in 2025.

“The biggest burden on the budget would be tax breaks, especially the introduction of zero PIT for families with two children (a limit of up to PLN 140,000 appeared in the campaign, as well as its lack), which would generate an additional cost for public finances in the amount of approx. PLN 29 billion” – the authors of the report pointed out.

Piotr Kuczyński with a distance refers to previous declarations of Karol Nawrocki. – Electoral promises are difficult to comment on the limited rights of the president – he assesses. Draws attention to one of the key obligations – lowering electricity prices by 33 percent during the first hundred days of taking office.

– Stating that it is possible to reduce energy prices by 30 percent is a complete misunderstanding – he assesses. He points out that the president has no appropriate prerogatives to this. – This will not succeed especially with the declared attachment to coal – the most expensive energy raw material in the world. It's just absurd. How are the market of the market to treat such announcements seriously? – he asks.

The expert also indicates a lack of consistency in financial declarations. – On the one hand, we are talking about a reduction in budget revenues, on the other – about increasing expenditure on CPK, a nuclear power plant and reinforcement. It just doesn't fasten – he comments.

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According to Anna Gołębicka, “there will be attempts to convince you that it is necessary to win in the next election to make promises.” He notes that in practice this means starting a parliamentary campaign.

The expert critically assesses the lack of a coherent economic strategy in the presidential campaign. – These promises do not result from a thoughtful economic strategy, but are a ad hoc way to get votes – he says.

Although the president has limited competences in the field of economic policy, Gołębicka reminds that he can put pressure on the government. – In the election campaign, we often heard the word “to pull out”. You can always pour the sovereign to shout: “Give us, give us,” he comments.

In her opinion, President Elekta may be subordinated to political logic, not economic reason. – I am afraid that Nawrocki's activities will have nothing to do with economic rationalism, but only with building positions for the needs of subsequent elections – he says.

During the presidential campaign, Karol Nawrocki has repeatedly emphasized his good relations with Donald Trump. Before the first round of elections, a photo was published in which the newly elected President of Poland poses with the former US president. Photography was received by many commentators as an expression of support for Nawrocki in the race for the highest office in the state. Can – as Karol Nawrocki argues – his close relationship with Donald Trump can realistically translate into economic benefits for Poland?

Gołębicka notes that “America conducts its independent and very unpredictable policy, including economic.” Nawrocki boasted a good reception by Donald Trump, but – as the expert emphasizes – “the final shape of these relationships will depend on what we will be able to offer President of the United States. – Trump works like a businessman – without sentiments – he says.

Referring to the relations with the USA, Kuczyński cools expectations. – As for economic relations with the USA – we are already buying military equipment from Americans for tens of billions of zlotys, we are building a nuclear power plant together. What else can you do? Go to Trump and embrace his hand? This is magical thinking again – he assesses. – Trump will not do anything for Poland, because what would he do? The customs policy is the competence of the European Union, not each country separately – he adds.

However, Maciej Stajniacki sees hope in Nawrocki's relations. It reminds that in July the 90-day suspension of duties by the US ends. – In this case, the support that the American administration gave to Karol Nawrocki may be useful. If the US is not able to impose a wide duties on the EU, then they will most likely use customs directed to specific countries or sectors. This situation will be a test of friendship between Trump and Nawrocki, because theoretically Poland could count on a reduced tariff from the United States – he comments.

Karol Nawrocki, as a future president, will have a great impact on the election of the new president of the National Bank of Poland in 2028. The President of the NBP is appointed and dismissed by the Sejm at the request of the president.

– Does the choice of the new president of the NBP worry me? It's hard to say. It depends whether it will be a choice for merits or choosing a competent economist. One thing seems certain: the conflict of the current government with the president of Glapiński is coming to an end. What will his dismissal give, since Karol Nawrocki will indicate the new president? – comments Piotr Kuczyński.

– It's a long perspective. You can say: we survived with this president of the NBP, we will learn with the next one. Only there is one rule in medicine: “not to harm”. If we got someone from political, who is to follow party orders, it would be a very bad situation for Poland – notes Anna Gołębicka.