In the coming week, the zloty will be influenced by a series of domestic macro data as well as the effects of Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) – analysts believe. On Monday, around 12.00, the euro costs almost PLN 4.78, the dollar – PLN 4.70, and the Swiss franc costs almost PLN 4.83.
“The zloty ended the week with an impressive rally, which should be associated with the depletion of the dollar’s upward trend, but the volatility zloty exchange rate to the rhythm of global factors, they do not change the fact that the point of equilibrium has shifted significantly downwards. It is difficult to build a constructive narrative regarding the zloty exchange rate for the coming months “- assess Pekao SA analysts.
Zloty exchange rate – analysts’ expectations
A lot of important macroeconomic data will be released to the market in the coming week, including Information about inflation base, wages and employment, industrial production or retail sales. According to economists, the data will show increasingly decelerating economic activity amid high price and wage pressures.
“In the short term, we expect that as the EUR / USD remains above the EUR / PLN and USD / PLN parity, they will remain below 4.80 and 4.75, respectively,” assesses PKO BP analysts.
“The EUR / PLN exchange rate starts a new week at 4.78 awaiting developments,” added experts from Bank Millennium.
Przemysław Kwiecień from XTB reminded that the zloty has been in a downward trend for a long time and so far there are no signals that could change this trend. “Especially when it comes to the actions of the MPC, which recently fell short of market expectations and raised rates by only 50 basis points, while expectations were at the level of 75 bp or more – he wrote in a commentary.
“Additionally, the weekend comment of the NBP governor may suggest that this year we should expect only one rate hike, by only 25 basis points. Besides, the credit holidays introduced by the Polish government will not support the zloty strength,” says Kwiecień.
Euro, dollar, franc – quotes on July 18
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