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Euro, dollar, franc, pound – quotations on 12.06.23. Gold is strengthening

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The exchange rate of the euro to the zloty is at the lowest level in two years – indicates Przemysław Kwiecień, chief economist of XTB. According to PKO BP analysts, the strength of the zloty will be tested in the coming days. Decisions on the interest rates of the Fed and the European Central Bank and the judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union on CHF loans will be crucial for the quotations.

On Monday, before 11.00 am, the euro was PLN 4.44, the dollar PLN 4.12, the Swiss franc PLN 4.57 and the British pound PLN 5.19.

“EUR/PLN kept pushing down”

“Monday’s session will not be full of important for zloty quotations events. The EUR/PLN exchange rate may therefore test the lows from December 2020 near 4.4150 by force of downward momentum. Such a move will be supported by market participants’ expectations for another strong reading of Poland’s current account balance for April. However, in the coming days, the strength of the zloty will be tested under the influence of the decisions of the Fed and the ECB, which are key for global players (especially if both banks maintain their hawkish messages), PKO BP economists assess.

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“In addition, direct pressure on our currency will most likely be exerted by an extremely unfavorable verdict for Polish banks CJEU on franc loans. Hence, we expect a rebound later in the week EUR exchange rate/PLN towards 4.48″ – they add.

Also in the opinion of Santander BP economists, the zloty may weaken in the coming days.

“EUR/PLN continued to push down. The consistent strengthening of the zloty was not spoiled by the sudden budget amendment or the proximity of the date of the CJEU verdict. In our opinion, the latter factor, coming at a time when global markets may be surprised by the hawkish message of the FOMC and ECB during decision-making meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, will contribute to triggering a recovery of PLN in the weaker direction.

“The charge of the gold continues in the best”

Przemysław Kwiecień from XTB pointed out that “the charge of the zloty is in full swing”. “The long weekend in Poland did not mean free time for the markets and during this time our currency gained significantly against both the euro and the dollar. The EURPLN rate is at its lowest level since May 2021. This is largely due to the hopes for the success of the offensive operation on Ukraine” – we read in the comment.

“At the moment, there are relatively few details, but from a market point of view, it is an impulse that many investors have been waiting for. The events in Ukraine were a key factor weighing down on the Polish market in 2022 – both directly and through the specter of the energy crisis, which will eventually end. This fact has been supporting European markets, including the zloty, for months now conflict in Ukraine on favorable conditions for the West, this would be an ideal scenario for the zloty, and it seems that this is the scenario that global capital is playing for.

“Looking at the EURPLN movement itself, the scale and dynamics of strengthening was last recorded at this level in 2015, and earlier in 2011. Moreover, the strengthening is not caused by a large (and for the time being permanent) difference in inflation to the disadvantage of the zloty. means that the current strengthening can already be assessed in the category of a growing detachment from the foundations, but it is worth remembering what happened in 2004-2008, when the exchange rate went full circle from 5 to 3.20 and again to almost 5. context, the current movement remains modest.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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