Friday is another day on which we observe the zloty sell-off. The Polish currency is losing against the main currencies. The euro is the most expensive since 2009, and the Swiss franc sets new highs. The British pound has also to be paid the most in five years.
Bartosz Sawicki, an analyst at Cinkciarz.pl, pointed out that the interest rate increases so far have not been able to support the zloty. Interest rates in Poland were raised in October and November and the benchmark interest rate rose by a total of 115 basis points to 1.25 percent. “Real interest rates remain extremely negative. Moreover, the nominal cost of money (reference rate at 1.25%) is lower than in the Czech Republic (2.75%) or in Hungary (where the deposit rate was raised to 2.5%). percent) “- he noted. The next decision-making meeting of the Monetary Policy Council is scheduled for December 8, 2021.
In the analyst’s opinion, “our currency is also repelled by the conflict of the Polish government with the European Union, and the piling up geopolitical risks related to the migration crisis at the Polish-Belarusian border”. “To this must be added the increasing number of COVID-19 infections both in Poland and in Western Europe. The foundations are also deteriorating, both in terms of the balance of payments and economic growth prospects,” added Sawicki.
Bank Millennium economists in the morning comment indicated that they expect EUR / PLN to remain in an upward trend. “The scenario of the attack on ever higher exchange rate levels remains our base scenario. What is symptomatic, however, is the fact that the Thursday’s fall in value was not accompanied by a strengthening of the dollar. In our opinion, it shows that the pressure on the weaker zloty is strong, although at the same time it should be quite calm. , but systematically, “they wrote.
In their opinion, “on the horizon it is currently difficult to find arguments – apart from technical in the short term – that could add strength to the zloty”. “The scenario of interest rate increases is currently quite aggressively priced, the approval of the National Reconstruction Plan by the European Union is dragging on and the inflationary pressure is gaining strength” – indicated Bank Millennium economists.
Zloty – quotes 19/11/2021
On Friday, around 11 for the euro you had to pay almost 4.69 zlotys. The European currency is the most expensive since March 2009.
The dollar cost over PLN 4.15. This is a level that hasn’t been seen since May 2020.
On the CHF / PLN pair, we saw a level of 4.48. The Swiss Franc is the most expensive ever.
You also had to pay nearly PLN 5.57 for the British pound. Most since June 2016.
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