On Monday we observe a weakening of the zloty against the euro, US dollar and British pound. In turn, we observe a slight discount on the Swiss franc. According to Maciej Madej, the TMS Brokers analyst, the market has exaggerated with its reaction to last week’s conference of the NBP president and “the zloty is undervalued at the moment”.
TMS Brokers analyst pointed out that “the zloty is showing a weakening after Thursday’s conference of the NBP president“In my opinion, there was nothing at this conference that we did not know about Polish monetary policy. I am talking about the dovish attitude of some of the Monetary Policy Council, because there are also glimpses of the increasingly stronger hawkish faction in the Council,” said Maciej Madej.
– The problem for the zloty was how President Glapiński communicated his views – he did it in a very decisive manner, which dispelled all doubts about the lack of normalization of monetary policy by the end of the year, and maybe even longer. The deadline that is being talked about is the end of the MPC term of office, i.e. the first quarter of 2022 – the analyst pointed out.
At the Thursday conference, the NBP governor Adam Glapiński once again assessed that the inflation rise is temporary. He indicated that the central bank should not react with an interest rate hike to negative supply shocks. The president assessed that responses to the current supply shock exist only on the side of fiscal policy. He indicated that, inter alia, fuel and energy prices account for about half of the rise in inflation.
Euro – quotes
From Thursday afternoon the EUR / PLN exchange rate increased by approximately PLN 0.04 to 4.55 recorded during the Monday session.
– I believe that at the moment the zloty is undervalued and the reaction to the NBP president’s conference is exaggerated. I expect that the zloty is approaching the end of this short-term weakness against the euro and it seems that the levels of 4.55-4.56 / EUR should be a strong resistance in the following days. However, I see the potential to descend towards the lower limit around 4.5150-4.5200 – said Madej.
On Monday at approx. At 16.30 the US dollar was valued higher by approx. 0.30 percent. You have to pay almost PLN 3.86 for the American currency. The Swiss Franc was down 0.16 percent. to 4.18. In turn, the British pound had to be paid 5.33 PLN, after an increase of 0.20%.
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