The zloty was weakening against the dollar and the euro on Tuesday morning. In the morning, however, the Polish currency started strengthening against the major currencies. According to economists, in the coming days the EUR/PLN exchange rate will stay close to 4.70, although some of them indicate that it may continue to grow above 4.72.
On Tuesday at approx. At 8.00 the zloty was losing against the dollar and the euro. The common currency cost PLN 4.72, and the American currency PLN 4.50. The exchange rate of the Swiss franc was stable and amounted to PLN 4.76.
after 10.00 for one euro you had to pay PLN 4.70. The dollar cost PLN 4.48, and the Swiss franc – PLN 4.75.
According to economists in the coming days EUR exchange rate/PLN will stay close to 4.70, although some of them indicate that it may continue to grow above 4.72. “The beginning of the week brought an increase in the EUR/PLN rate to around 4.70 and the USD/PLN rate to around 4.49, while the EUR/USD rate remained around 1.05,” PKO BP economists wrote in a Tuesday commentary.
In their opinion, Wednesday’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Council should not trigger any significant reaction to the zloty. “With an empty economic calendar from Poland, investors are already positioning themselves before the Wednesday meeting of the MPC. This time, however, market expectations are in line with the expectations of economists, unanimously forecasting that interest rates will remain unchanged, hence the decision of the MPC should not cause a visible reaction to the zloty,” PKO economists wrote. BP.
The MPC meeting will be held on Wednesday.
Euro, dollar, franc – quotations on December 6
According to representatives of PKO BP, in the coming days the EUR/PLN pair will remain close to 4.70.
In turn, pressure on the currencies of our region may start to be exerted again by rising gas prices (prices of January TTF contracts for the supply of natural gas have increased in recent days to close to EUR 150 per MWh after falling below EUR 100 per MWh in October) and the probable slowdown of further depreciation of the dollar Therefore, we expect the EUR/PLN exchange rate to remain close to 4.70 in the coming days, they indicated.
On the other hand, Bank Millennium economists indicated the nearest resistance, which, if overcome, could open the way to an increase in the EUR/PLN exchange rate to around 4.7239.
“The zloty is weakening, although for the time being it does so in a rather conservative way, i.e. within the levels observed in November. If the level of 4.7070 is permanently overcome, the next barrier to growth will be the level of 4.7239. We identify the current movement of the zloty’s depreciation with natural changes in exchange rates In our opinion, it is not related to a change in the outlook for, for example, the Polish economy or global risk appetite. Tuesday’s session does not contain any significant macroeconomic data releases, hence the stabilization of the currency and debt securities markets seems to be the baseline scenario for today in our opinion.” – Bank Millennium economists wrote in the morning.
ING BSK experts, in turn, expect an increase in EUR/PLN above 4.72. “The return of EUR/PLN above 4.70, and with small changes in EUR/USD, may herald a slightly larger correction / weakening of the zloty than we assumed. The first major resistance zone is 4.72-4.7250. Breaking it will probably require further strengthening dollar and generally worse moods on the markets, but this is an increasingly likely scenario,” wrote economists of ING Bank Śląski in the Dziennik.
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