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European elections 2024 – parties. What might the division of seats in the European Parliament look like?

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According to the preliminary results of the European Parliament, the European People's Party will have 185 seats in the new parliamentary term, the Socialists and Democrats will have 139 seats, and the liberal Renew Europe alliance will have 80 seats. The Conservatives will win 72 seats, and the far-right Identity and Democracy party will have 58. This projection has been for many years. hours are changing and will continue to change on Monday. However, it shows that the democratic forces that traditionally support European integration will have a significant advantage in the new European Parliament. Radicals from the right and left will get a total of about 25-30 percent of the seats – notes Maciej Sokołowski, TVN24 correspondent in Brussels.

An updated general forecast for the distribution of seats and the shape of political groups was published on the European Parliament's website after 2:47.

According to preliminary results, the European People's Party (EPP) wins 185 seats, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) wins 139 seats, and Renew Europe – 80 seats. The right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) have 72 seats, while the far-right Identity and Democracy party has 58 seats. The Greens win 52 seats, non-affiliated MPs – 45, newly elected MPs who do not belong to any of the political groups of the outgoing EP – 53, and the Left – 36 seats.

In total, the democratic groups supporting European integration – EPP, S&D, Renew Europe and the Greens – have, according to the projection, 406 out of 720 seats.

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The estimated turnout in the European Parliament elections for 27 countries was 51%. before 22. In Poland, according to a late poll by Ipsos, it was 40.2 percent.

As stated on the EP website, “since it is impossible to predict the composition of the newly elected parliament or political groups before the inaugural meeting, the forecast is based on the structure of the outgoing parliament.” It added that “the forecast will be updated until voting ends in all Member States and the final results are published by national electoral authorities.”

According to the EP's rules of procedure, a political group “is composed of at least 23 Members elected in at least seven Member States”.

What do these results mean for Europe?

Maciej Sokołowski, TVN24 correspondent in Brussels, spoke on TVN24 about what the results of the European elections mean for Europe.

He emphasized that the European People's Party did not change its position in the European Parliament. – So far it had 25 percent of seats and now it should also have about 25 percent – he pointed out. He also noted that “Socialists and Democrats lose only a little.” – And these are still the two largest factions – emphasized Sokołowski.

Rise for the far right

However – in France and Germany, for example – “the extreme right, populist parties are increasing their influence.” The TVN24 correspondent noted that this is not directly visible in the results because these formations do not cooperate with each other. – It would be a much bigger increase if Marine Le Pen (National Rally – ed.) added her votes to the Alternative for Germany. But what happened before the elections? Alternative for Germany was expelled from the Identity and Democracy faction, to which Marine Le Pen belongs, so we are not adding up these votes now, he explained.

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He emphasized that they were a very important group unaffiliated. – And that's where we find parties that cannot reach an agreement with others yet. Among others kicked out Alternative for Germany, Viktor Orban's Fidesz, who, even after being expelled from the European People's Party, was still on the margins – noted the reporter. – If we add all these extreme, radical groups, we get about 25-30 percent of the seats in the European Parliament. And that's the growth – he explained.

European Parliament elections. Report by Maciej SokołowskiTVN24/Reuters

However, there is no single strong right-wing faction on the right. The division is mainly into two – ECR and Identity and Democracy. For them, the increase “isn't that big.” – As for EKR, from 9.5 percent to 9.9 percent, and for Identity and Democracy from 8.2 percent to 8.6 percent – said Sokołowski.

Therefore, when we talk about the growth of the right wing, attention focuses mainly on those unaffiliated who – as Sokołowski said – “now have to come to an agreement in some way.” – This is what the next few days will be about. These negotiations are starting now. How to create common factions, or will there be several smaller ones that will cause chaos in the European Parliament, but will not be so important? – included the TVN24 correspondent.

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Force distribution in percent

The distribution of power in the European Parliament can also be expressed as a percentage.

The preliminary results published by the European Parliament after 2:57 p.m. show that democratic, pro-European formations (EPP, S&D, Renew Europe and the Greens) constitute 63.2 percent. composition of the European Parliament.

Already in the European Parliament right-wing groups (ECR and Identity and Democracy) have 18.74 percent estimated support.

Parties making their debut in the EP and those that were already in the chamber but did not belong to a specific faction (such a party is, for example, the populist, nationalist Fidesz or the far-right Alternative for Germany) have a total of 13.61 percent.

Their possible joining of particular groups in the future may change the balance of power in the chamber, as Maciej Sokołowski just mentioned.

Main photo source: olrat / Shutterstock.com

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