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Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Exchange rate 16/11/2023. The euro hasn’t been this cheap for three years

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On Thursday, the Polish currency strengthened against the euro for another day, to the level of 4.37 and reached a 3-year minimum on the EUR/PLN exchange rate. According to economists, the environment will remain favorable for the zloty, which may mean further strengthening of the Polish currency.

On Thursday after 5 p.m., the euro was worth approximately PLN 4.37, the dollar was PLN 4.02, the Swiss franc was PLN 4.53, and the British pound was PLN 5.00.

– A month ago, domestic factors strongly supported the Polish currency, and in recent days the weakening of the dollar has contributed to this. We are now dealing with an outflow of capital from the American currency to assets from emerging markets – Rafał Sadoch, BM Bank’s FX market analyst, told PAP Biznes.

In his opinion, the very strong depreciation of the dollar, which followed weaker-than-expected inflation data in the United States, which led to the belief that interest rates could be reduced in the United States, resulted in the EUR/PLN exchange rate dropping to the lowest level in three years, i.e. approximately .4.37.

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– Around 4.36 are the minimums from 2020, if we break this level, there is room for further declines – said the analyst.

The impact of the change in the MPC’s rhetoric

He added that fundamental issues will have a greater impact on the zloty than technical analysis.

– Last week, the Monetary Policy Council clearly changed its rhetoric and said that there is no point in counting on interest rate cuts. In Poland, we are not talking about price increases yet, but if the anti-inflation shield was not extended and if inflation skyrocketed in the new year, such a scenario would be possible. All the more so because the NBP, under the current arrangement of power, will be more restrictive than before in terms of monetary policy – said Rafał Sadoch.

NBP reference ratePAP

– All these elements support the zloty and I do not expect the general trend to reverse in the near future. Of course, we can see some recovery, because we are after a very strong move in the zloty, but in the medium or long term I would see room for further strengthening of our currency. As for the USD/PLN exchange rate, a level below 4 by the end of this year should not surprise anyone – he added.

Main photo source: Adobe Stock

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