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Expert from ICM UW: peak of the fourth wave of SARS-CoV-2 virus infections around December 5

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The peak of the current wave of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections will fall at the beginning of December – said Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw (ICM UW).

A team of researchers led by Dr. Franciszek Rakowski from the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling at the University of Warsaw (ICM UW) calculates that the peak of the current wave of the pandemic in Poland will be around December 5. The average daily number of infections then may be around 27,000-28,000.

– In the coming weeks there will be more increases in the number of infections. However, the phase of the fastest climb to the top is already behind us. So the increases will slow down. We predict that we will achieve an average infection rate of 27,000-28,000. Of course, we are talking about the daily average over seven days. This means that the reading in the middle of the week – on Wednesday or Thursday – can easily reach up to 38,000 infections. This, however, results from the method of reporting the collected data – explained Dr. Rakowski.

Coronavirus in Poland. Fourth wave peak in December

Dr. Franciszek Rakowski’s team has calculated that the peak of the current wave of infections will be around December 5. “Then there will be a climax,” he said.

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Later declines are to begin. – We started this wave at the end of August with 75 percent of immunized people – after vaccination and infection. Now it is about 81-82 percent. So this wave will take us through herd immunity. We’ll land at over 90 percent of the immunized population. This will lead to a decrease in the number of subsequent cases of infection, said the expert.

The model his team uses shows that around Christmas, the average daily number of infections will be around 20,000. – During this period, however, there will be the peak of hospitalization. We will then need around 30,000 beds for COVID-19 patients, he explained.

Currently, according to the researcher from ICM UW, we are at the top of the wave in the Podlaskie and Lubelskie voivodships. – Podkarpacie is also waiting for a significant increase due to a very weak grafting. We are a bit surprised that it is a bit later, but it seems inevitable. However, I do not agree with the statement that the wave goes from the east to the west of Poland. It is rising simultaneously throughout the country, but it looks different in different regions due to different vaccination coverage of their populations, as well as different degrees of social contacts, he said.

According to Dr. Rakowski, it will be the last wave of infections falling on a “clean organism” that is not protected by antibodies.

– And it is these infections that later cause the most hospitalizations, admissions to the ICU and, consequently, deaths. The next waves will already happen in the largely immunized population. Of course, post-vaccination and post-infection hospitalizations will occur, but the risk of a severe course in this case is much lower – the expert assessed.

Main photo source: PAP / Rafał Guz



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