It seems that the Ukrainians have once again surprised Russia and observers in the West with their latest operation, wrote Mick Ryan, an Australian retired general, publicist and military expert, on social media, referring to reports of an attack on the Kursk region in Russia. As he pointed out, it seems that “the Ukrainians have assigned experienced formations to this attack.” He added that “they attacked with highly mobile, mechanized forces,” which could translate into the speed of the action. He described Ukraine's potential targets.
Ukrainian forces conducting an offensive in Russia's Kursk region continue to advance into the region, pro-Kremlin Telegram channels reported on Thursday. The region's authorities reported that nearly three thousand people had been evacuated from the shelled towns. On Wednesday, Kursk region announced state of emergency.
Advisor to the President Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky Mykhailo Podolyak, for the first time since Tuesday's reports of fighting in the Kursk region, officially commented on the events. “There is only one reason for any escalation, shelling, military operations, forced evacuations, destruction of normal life, in particular on the territory of Russia itself, including the Kursk and Belgorod regions. This is the fact of Russia's unconditional aggression, its attempt to seize foreign territories and contempt for the norms of international law, which clearly define the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he wrote on the X platform.
“The events in Kursk and Belgorod regions allow us to organize a certain experiment,” Podolak wrote. “While the machine of repression of the Russian Federation burns in the bushes, the liberated Russians can go out with flowers to meet the anti-Putin tanks,” he added.
Ryan: It looks like Ukrainians have once again surprised Russia and observers in the West
Mick Ryan, an Australian retired general, columnist and military expert, has assessed the latest reports of an attack on Russia's Kursk region in a series of posts on the X platform. He also described potential Ukrainian targets.
The expert noted that “surprise is an important element of human rivalry and warfare” and “it seems that the Ukrainians have once again surprised Russia and observers in the West with their latest operation.”
Ryan noted that the initial view of the operation was as another raid on Russia, similar to previous Ukrainian operations in May 2023 and March 2024. However, he noted important differences. “First, it is a multi-brigade operation. At least two Ukrainian brigades have been identified so far: the 22nd Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. Both of these formations are of high quality. It seems that, unlike the southern counteroffensive in 2023, which involved fresh brigades, The Ukrainians assigned experienced formations for this attack.” – he wrote.
“Secondly, the Ukrainians they attacked with highly mobile, mechanized forces“, which can translate into the speed of the action.
Thirdly, Ryan enumerated, it seems that the Ukrainians They also deployed a significant portion of their air defense capabilitiesThe retired general recalled that, according to initial findings, “at least one Russian fighter and two helicopters were shot down by Ukrainians,” despite initial reports that the Russians used glide bombs and a significant number of drones.
“Fourthly, Ukraine has penetrated a considerable distance into Russia at least on two axes of attack”. Ryan noted at the same time that the events in Kursk region are “very unclear and Ukrainian forces may penetrate Russia much deeper than we think”. The expert assessed that this is “the biggest progress by either side in this war since late 2022”.
As the fifth important point, Ryan mentioned obtaining the element of surprise from the Ukrainians“This shows once again that the battlefield is far from transparent and that good intelligence and surprise are key elements of modern warfare.”
General Polko on the fighting in Kursk Oblast: these are the right actions PAP
What goals can Ukraine have?
The military officer then analyzed what tactical, operational and political goals the Ukrainian side could achieve thanks to this operation.
“At its most basic tactical level, this operation will involve the seizure of territory and the destruction of Russian ground and air forces. This is the central role of ground forces in war,” he wrote.
In his opinion, the operation may also force the Russians to react decisively and “reconsider the deployment of forces in other places on the front line”, and “even they do not have bottomless resources for this”.
An attack on the Kursk Oblast could also be significant due to the nuclear power plant located there and the possible disruption of key roads and railway lines.
“The Ukrainian attack may be an attempt to slow down or kill the dynamics of the Russian offensive, which lasted until 2024. Ukrainian planners understand that even Russia cannot remain on the offensive forever,” the military official noted.
“The second strategic objective could be to shift the narrative of the war to a more positive one for Ukraine and counter Russian disinformation about its 'inevitable victory' in Ukraine.” Ryan recalled that the counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region in 2022 “not only surprised the world, but changed the narrative about Ukraine's ability to fight a war and caused a significant change in the West's approach to providing aid.”
Fighting near the border with Russia. Reuters publishes recording Reuters
Another important goal that the Ukrainian side can achieve is to “raise the morale of the Ukrainian population”, especially after several months of attacks on infrastructure and power outages.
As Ryan points out, it may also be important to “occupy as much territory as possible in case Ukraine is forced to conclude some negotiated agreement in late 2024 or early 2025.” Negotiations may prove easier when part of the enemy's territory is occupied, the expert emphasizes.
“Time will tell whether using Ukrainian brigades to attack Russia rather than defend eastern Ukraine was the most strategically effective use of their forces,” Ryan concluded.
Main image source: Reuters