First Putin, then Tusk. Will Modi “bring some proposal to Kiev”?

The Prime Minister's first trip India down Ukraine comes just weeks after Narendra Modi's talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. On Thursday, Modi met with the Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the president Andrzej Duda. It was the first official visit of an Indian Prime Minister to Poland in 45 years.

– The first visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to democratic Poland and his first visit to free Ukraine are writing new history – assessed Dr. Tomasz Łukaszuk.

– Here is India, the leader of the Global South, meeting with Poland, one of the leaders of the European Union. Another meeting with Ukraine is important because India has a certain narrative when it comes to aggression Russiaand many other countries may follow it, Łukaszuk said.

He explained that “many countries of the Global South view the war in Ukraine as yet another case of a proxy war between the US and Russia”. – This narrative needs to be dispelled, as it is an important issue in properly understanding the interconnections in the global security system – said the expert from the Faculty of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Warsaw.

– The situation in Ukraine and the Middle East has a significant impact on the interests and security of India and other countries of the Global South. India learned this when, during the development of events in Ukraine, the military support of the aggressor was joined China and North Koreai.e. the closest neighbors – noted the political scientist.

“It turned out that the war is not too far from Delhi and directly affects India's security,” he added.

In his opinion, the dangerous situation for India is when the Chinese are building their power on the conflict in Ukraine, and at the same time Russia is becoming weaker.

Asked about Modi's recent meeting with Vladimir Putin, Lukashuk stated that “in the case of India, which is a country with ambitions, it was an inside game”. – The head of the Indian government had to ensure supplies of oil and gas, because without them the gigantic Indian economy will not survive – he assessed.

Russian crude oil accounted for a record 44 percent of India’s total imports last month, Reuters reported on Thursday. In 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russian oil accounted for just 2 percent of annual imports.

The expert also stressed that thanks to the visit to Poland and Ukraine, the leaders of both countries can once again emphasize in direct talks that “Russia has broken all existing rules of the international order established over the last hundred years, all conventions concerning both war and peace.” – This fundamental issue, related to the principles of the global international order in the 21st century, should be understood by India and other countries of the Global South – Łukaszuk explains.

According to the political scientist, “from Prime Minister Modi's perspective, the most important thing is to maintain a balance between the most important players in India's environment: the US, China and Russia.”

– In India's understanding, this balance must be maintained. If Russia weakens and China strengthens, it will hit Indian interests. USA entered a higher level of cooperation with India in 2005, since then the strategic partnership has been deepening and stable – he explained.

The position of China and Russia is less stable and poses greater challenges for India.

– Prime Minister Modi spoke privately with Prime Minister Tusk, and earlier he spoke with Putin. This means that he may bring some proposal to Kiev regarding the issue of peacefully ending the war. And if he does not have such a proposal, he will propose personal involvement in talks with people with whom he has regular contacts, i.e. the president of the USA, the chairman of China and the leader of Russia. President Zelensky knows that Modi is one of the few heads of government in the world who has regular direct contact with them. This may be some kind of offer for President Zelensky – assessed the political scientist.

– For Modi, it is important not only to end the war peacefully, but also for Zelensky to understand the premises that guide the Indians in their foreign policy – he added.

After Moscow launched an all-out war in Ukraine in February 2022, India, along with China, became a major market for Russian raw materials sanctioned by the EU and the US. India did not condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Modi will end his visit to Kyiv on Friday. Ukraine celebrates Independence Day on Saturday.