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Fuel prices at gas stations. Forecasts, analyses, promotions – July 2023

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Fuel prices at stations in the next week of July may increase as a result of wholesale price increases, analysts of the e-petrol.pl portal indicated. Refleks analysts stated in their forecast that there is no reason to count on a drop in fuel prices at stations in the next week. They also pointed to an increase in fuel prices and a weakening of the zloty against the dollar.

e-petrol.pl experts pointed out that “at many stations from fuel prices PLN 0.30 per liter, which is related to discount campaigns”. As a result, the cost of refueling fell by several zlotys on a full tank. In the opinion of analysts, retail market operators will not incur losses despite discounts for their customers, because they will benefit on increasing the fuel turnover and non-fuel offer in the period of increased car traffic caused by Poles going on summer holidays.

Fuel prices at stations in July 2023

As e-petrol.pl reported on Friday, when refueling in the next week of July, one should prepare for the expense of “6.44-6.55 per liter of 95 petrol and 6.19-6.30 for the same amount of diesel”. According to experts, the drivers of gas-powered cars have the greatest certainty as to the level of prices that they will find at the station – in the coming days, the price of LPG may be PLN 2.85-2.92 per liter, depending on the type of station.

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The e-petrol.pl price survey conducted on July 5 showed that in the past week, on average in the country, unleaded petrol 95 cost PLN 6.49/l at petrol stations, and diesel PLN 6.23/l. “The average price of LPG has been characterized by low volatility for a long time and at the beginning of the week autogas cost on average PLN 2.86/l in the country” – noted the portal’s analysts.

The portal predicts that there may be an “growth correction” on the retail fuel market, resulting from increases in wholesale prices.

“The first July week of this year’s holidays on the Polish fuel market was marked by increases in wholesale prices. From Friday, June 30, until today, diesel oil has become more expensive by PLN 74 per 1,000 liters, and in the case of gasoline, the price increase was less than PLN 60. Despite these increases, sales are still on sale the refining plant pays less for fuel than a month ago, and this is especially visible in the case of the popular 95” – the analysts noted.

E-petrol.pl’s forecasts show that in the coming days we will observe a continuation of price increases on the wholesale market, especially noticeable for diesel oil.

“Friday’s increase in fuel prices and the weakening of the zloty against the dollar may change the situation on the domestic fuel market, if they continue next week. assessed by the experts of Refleks.

According to Refleks data, the average prices are: for unleaded petrol PLN 95 – PLN 6.47/l (decrease by PLN 0.2/l compared to prices on June 29, 2023), unleaded petrol PLN 98 – PLN 7.07/l (no change in the analyzed period ), diesel oil – PLN 6.19/l (decrease by PLN 0.1/l), autogas – PLN 2.85/l (decrease by PLN 0.3/l).

“Fuel prices vary depending on the location and operator of the station. Traveling around the country, we may encounter stations where the prices of both gasoline and diesel will be much below national averagei.e. we can pay about PLN 6.30 for a liter of petrol, and PLN 5.90 for diesel”, experts indicated. They also recommended that drivers looking for savings when refueling use current promotions or choose independent stations offering lower prices.

The oil market and the OPEC+ declaration

The e-petrol.pl portal pointed out that this week’s main news related to the situation on the oil market is the declaration of OPEC+ leaders to reduce oil production by another million barrels a day in July, in addition to the earlier decision to reduce production by 500,000. barrels per day. “In the current month, therefore, the total volume of production cuts by Riyadh will amount to 1.5 million barrels a day, and the level of production alone will be about 9 million barrels a day,” experts from e-petrol.pl reported.

A similar move is also to be made by the Russian Federation, which in August wants to export 500,000 tons more. barrels a day less, analysts reminded. They added that Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman declared that Russian-Saudi oil cooperation continues to develop under the OPEC+ alliance, which wants to do “whatever is necessary” to support the market. “The other countries of the organization have not fundamentally changed their policies under the agreement” – the experts noted.

In their opinion, the state of inventories in the United States – Department of Energy is also important news USA published statistics on oil reserves, according to which crude oil reserves in the country decreased by 1.5 million barrels to the level of 452 million barrels.

“In the case of gasoline reserves, they fell by 2.5 million barrels – to 219 million barrels, and middle distillates (heating oil and diesel) – by 1 million barrels, to 113 million barrels. In the case of crude oil reserves, the change was in line with analysts’ expectations, who suggested a similar scale of downward changes” – noted e-petrol.pl analysts.

In turn, Refleks analysts pointed out that the prices of the September series of Brent oil contracts on Friday morning were “in the region” of USD 77. per barrel. On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil rose by about USD 1.6. per barrel. Urals FOB Rotterdam oil prices rose to $60. per barrel.

According to experts from Refleks, the market is supported by Saudi Arabia’s announcements to extend voluntary production cuts of 1 million barrels a day until August and keep production at the lowest level since June 2021, i.e. 9 million barrels a day.

“Russia, in turn, announced its intention to reduce oil exports in August by 0.5 million barrels a day. Due to Russia’s announced reduction of oil exports in August by 0.5 million barrels a day, a high level of Russian oil exports is expected in July.” – the analysts pointed out.

Experts added that in June, Russian crude oil exports by sea amounted to 3.46 million barrels a day. “This is a 10% month-on-month decline to the lowest level since February this year. On the other hand, the level of exports is still higher compared to the average level (3.1 million barrels per day) before Russia’s attack on Ukraine“- they noted in the comment.

According to Refleks analysts, the drop in exports in June is mainly the result of a reduction in purchases of Russian oil by India and China. “Turkey, in turn, imported a record amount of Russian fuels in June. The second largest export destination for Russian petroleum products remained United Arab Emirates” – they gave.

Main photo source: Shutterstock

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