Possible further surprises in the banking sector may affect the commodities and fuels market. For the time being, retail prices should be affected by last week’s wholesale price reductions, so drivers can count on drops, the e-petrol.pl portal pointed out. In turn, Refleks analysts stated that there is a chance for a further drop in fuel prices, despite Friday’s rebound on the ARA market, which will increase the cost of purchase for domestic refineries.
From the analysis published on Friday by e-petrol.pl fuel prices shows that next week, the most popular unleaded petrol, on average, should be refueled by drivers for PLN 6.62-6.73 per liter, while diesel oil will cost PLN 6.87-7.07 per liter on average. It was added that drivers of cars with gas installations should not be surprised – gas should cost the same as now and next week – PLN 3.12-3.20 per liter on average.
Fuel prices at gas stations in Poland
According to the portal’s data, in the middle of the past week, unleaded petrol 95 cost PLN 6.71/l on average in retail sales. A liter of diesel oil cost PLN 7.07 on average. The average price of autogas has not changed for three weeks and amounts to PLN 3.19/l.
“Although the discount of crude oil and fuels on international markets is related to the problems of American banks, for drivers in Poland it means that in the first days of the calendar spring we will refuel at the lowest prices for many months” – said e-petrol.pl analysts. They noted that the coming days may bring slight increases in fuel prices in Polish refineries. “Gasoline prices may remain at their current level, and diesel will be cheaper to fill up,” they added.
Experts pointed out that the beginning of March brought price drops on the domestic wholesale fuel market.
“Wholesale gasoline has become cheaper by approx. 2.63-2.88% during the week. In the case of 95 unleaded gasoline, since last Friday, i.e. March 10, the price has fallen by over PLN 150 and currently amounts to PLN 5,209.20 net on average per 1000 l. Diesel oil has become cheaper by over 4 percent, i.e. by nearly PLN 240, and costs on average (…) PLN 5,354 net for 1000 l. According to analysts, recent fluctuations in the price of this fuel have brought wholesale prices closer to the levels seen in February last year.
According to e-petrol.pl, domestic fuel producers will introduce further changes to their wholesale price lists in the coming days. The portal forecasts slight fluctuations in wholesale prices in refineries, “but the week may bring further surprises served by the banking sector, which will have a significant impact on the raw materials and fuels market. For now, however, the reductions from last week should transfer to the retail market and drivers can for further reductions – especially clear in the case of diesel.
“This past week we’ve seen an avalanche in international oil and fuel prices (Brent crude opened at $83.11 on Monday and closed at $73.69 on Wednesday) – as a direct consequence of the stock market collapse following the Silicon Valley bank and Signature Bank, which were additionally affected by bad news about the condition of Credit Suisse. They recalled the announcement that the CS bank would lend up to $54 billion. from the Swiss central bank, which would strengthen its liquidity and reassure investors. “However, the mood of anxiety in the markets has already been sown and brings back memories … when the collapse of Lehman Brothers began the great financial crisis,” the commentary indicated.
According to analysts, the factor that could slow down the decline in the oil market is the rebuilding of demand for crude oil and fuels by China’s economy, emerging from the impasse. They added that Chinese refineries processed more than 3 percent. more oil in the first two months of 2023 compared to the same period a year earlier. “Such reports mean that, among others, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) yesterday raised its forecast of an increase in oil demand in the Middle Kingdom even more” – they noted.
They pointed out that US oil exports increased by 22 percent. against the results from 2021, reaching the maximum level of 3.6 million barrels per day. “The abrupt change can be considered a consequence of increased oil supplies to countries that want to replace Russian oil. Despite the fact that Russian oil is subject to sanctions, deliveries from this country are carried out using the ‘shadow fleet’ (estimated at 10% of the entire tanker transport market) and there are no major problems with the transport of Russian gas to interested buyers” – noted e-petrol.pl experts.
“Wholesale fuel prices in the country fell sharply”
However, according to Refleks experts, regardless of the scale of the forecast increases in wholesale prices, there is still a chance for a further decline in diesel prices to the average level below PLN 7/l. “Reductions can also be noted in the case of petrol. The possible scale of the decrease in petrol and diesel prices in retail is PLN 0.5-15 per liter” – they informed.
According to Refleks data, the average diesel prices at stations in the past week approached the level of PLN 7/l, which means that diesel oil is cheaper by PLN 0.42/l than a year ago.
“The prices of unleaded petrol Pb95 remain at a stable level of around PLN 6.70/l, which is also PLN 0.04/l more expensive than a year ago. In year-on-year terms, the prices of autogas changed the most. From PLN 3.80/l LPG prices fell to the current level of PLN 3.16/l, i.e. by nearly 17%. – the analysts pointed out. They added that the average prices at filling stations as of March 16 were as follows: unleaded petrol PLN 95 – 6.71/l (non-licensed), unleaded petrol PLN 98 – 7.35/l (non-licensed), diesel oil PLN 7.01/l ( -10 PLN/l), autogas PLN 3.16/l (-2 PLN/l).
“The past week was characterized by high dynamics of price changes both on the crude oil market and on the domestic wholesale market. After Wednesday’s turmoil on the oil market, wholesale fuel prices in the country fell sharply, but Friday’s price increases on the ARA market will again raise purchase prices for domestic refineries” – experts assessed.
They pointed out that the sell-off wave initiated by the bankruptcy of two American banks did not spare the oil market.
“The decline in the price of the May series of Brent crude oil contracts slowed down to around $72 a barrel. On Friday morning, Brent crude oil was at around $75 a barrel, the lowest level since December 2021. The price of Russian Urals FOB Rotterdam fell again to 40 USD per barrel, and ESPO to USD 62 per barrel, analysts said. They added that on a weekly basis, Brent crude oil fell about $8. per barrel. In the period from March 10-16, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the ARA market fell by USD 58/t and USD 50/t, respectively.
“OPEC left unchanged at 2.3 million barrels per day forecasts for the growth rate of global oil consumption this year. The average annual level of consumption is estimated at 101.9 million barrels per day,” Reflex reported.
Experts pointed out that the forecasts for the growth rate of consumption in China.
“The International Energy Agency expects global fuel consumption to increase by 2 million barrels a day this year, to a record high of 102 million barrels a day. According to IEA data, production of Russian crude oil fell in February to 9.9 million barrels a day and is 0.57 million barrels per day below the limit set under the OPEC+ agreement.
It was noted that in February over 70 percent. of Russian oil exports went to two countries – China and India. “Russian exports of finished products to EU and G7 countries decreased by 2 million barrels a day compared to pre-explosion period war in Ukraine. Total Russian exports of petroleum products at the beginning of 2022 amounted to 2.8 million barrels per day.
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